摘要
通过建立一个异质性农户模型,本文从理论上分析了确权对于农户资本投资的影响机制:稳定土地产权、促进土地流转、放松信贷约束。基于中国劳动力动态调查(CLDS)的农户微观数据,本文使用PSM-DID方法进行实证分析,发现土地确权后资本投资提升了20%。为了保证因果分析的可靠性,本文将农村固定观察点数据和CLDS数据匹配,进行了事前趋势检验;控制了地区固定效应和时间交互项;用工具变量法进行了估计。本文还进行了多种稳健性检验:改变估计样本、考虑其他宏观政策的影响、安慰剂检验,证明了实证结果的稳健性。异质性分析显示:土地确权对中等土地规模、东部省份以及中等生产率农户的投资有更显著的影响。本文发现目前确权主要通过提升土地承包经营权稳定性这一直接机制促进农户资本投资。
Land rights are commonly considered an important catalyst for agricultural investment.In China,agricultural land is owned by collectives,and farmers own the contracting and managing rights.Sometimes farmers may fear land expropriation,and therefore reduce their investment.In this paper,we examine the link between capital investment in agriculture and land titling,and we do sousing household-level data from rural China.We also consider that the 2009 launching of China's progressive reform of land titling provides a quasi-natural experiment for us.We identify the causal impact of land titling on investment by using micro data from the China Labor Force Dynamic Survey(CLDS)database,which gives detailed information on farmersin 31 provinces of China.This paper introduces several innovations to improve on previous research.1)We lay out a theoretical model of heterogeneous farmer investment in the presence of land rights,and we derive this model's empirical implications.Our model considers the contribution of secure property rights and the indirect effects that land titling has on investment through promoting land circulation and by relaxing credit constraints.2)We econometrically evaluate the causal effects of land titling on farmer investment in machinery.To solve the endogeneity problem,we apply the PSM-DID and instrumental variable methods.Various robustness tests ensure the reliability of the empirical results.3)We test three kinds of influence mechanisms:secure land rights,promotion of land circulation,and relaxation of credit constraints.The reasons for failures of these indirect mechanisms are also discussed.We use a DID estimator that exploits the exogenous cross-region and cross-year variations in the timings of land titling to assess the causal effect that land titling has on investment.The assumption of a common time trend is essential for establishing the reliability of DID results even without an assumption of random selection.We match information in the Rural Fixed Observation Points database with that found in the CLDS database,and then test the common trend assumption based on the Rural Fixed Observation Points database from before 2013.The results suggest that the common time trend assumption is satisfied.The paper s major finding is that land titling increases farmers investments in machinery by 20%.This finding is robust to using different measures of machinery investment,controlling for time-varying regional and household characteristics,controlling for both region and year fixed effects,and controlling for the cross term of region and time trend.This paper selects two instrumental variables:“is it a pilot city the proportion of land titling in another county in the same city”and“the proportion of land titling among sample farmers in a neighboring city of the same province”.The results from the two-stage least squares method(2SLS)are close to the benchmark model.A placebo test is used to further demonstrate the robustness of the results.The heterogeneity analysis shows that land titling has a more significant effect on investment among operators of medium-sized farms,on farmers in eastern provinces,and on farms with medium levels of land productivity.The large-scale farmers have relatively high capital stock,and their marginal returns on capital investment are low.For small-scale farmers,the restricted scope of their operations tends to limit agricultural investment.Farmers in eastern provinces tend to have higher levels of education,which increases their levels of agricultural investment.The high costs of agricultural production and the small scale of operations are the main factors that limit the increase of agricultural investment by high-productivity farmers.We explore three possible explanations regarding the channels underlying these findings.The empirical results show that protecting the stability of property rights is the main means for improving investment at this time.The measures of relaxing credit constraints and promoting land circulation have not yet played effective roles,perhaps because of the small scale of most farms in China.Further reducing the transaction costs of land circulation and increasing the farmers formal opportunities for credit are key means of promoting agricultural investment and improving agricultural productivity.
作者
孙琳琳
杨浩
郑海涛
SUN Linlin;YANG Hao;ZHENG Haitao(School of Public Administration,Beihang University;School of Economics and Management,Beihang University)
出处
《经济研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2020年第11期156-173,共18页
Economic Research Journal
基金
国家社会科学基金项目“基于异质性农户的农业土地流转、农户规模和农业生产率增长研究”(17BJY103)
国家自然科学基金项目(71873012)的重要成果。
关键词
土地确权
资本投资
信贷约束
土地流转
异质性农户模型
Land Titling
Agricultural Investment
Credit Constraint
Land Circulation
Heterogeneous Farmer Model
作者简介
孙琳琳,北京航空航天大学公共管理学院经济学系,邮政编码:100191,电子信箱:vickysunlin@126.com;杨浩,北京航空航天大学公共管理学院经济学系,邮政编码:100191,电子信箱:15652579355@163.com;郑海涛,北京航空航天大学经济管理学院,邮政编码:100191,电子信箱:08161@buaa.edu.cn。
