摘要
随着劳动力成本上升和产业转型升级,中国部分制造业出现外移。文章基于世界投入产出数据库,构建跨国投入产出模型,对2009～2014年中国制造业外移特征及其就业效应进行实证研究。研究发现,外移多为主动而非被动,外移的制造业为劳动密集型和污染密集型,且伴随着技术密集型制造业向国内转移。制造业外移对中国就业整体影响不大,年均仅有0.095%的就业岗位受到影响,制造业外移不足以解释近年制造业就业人数减少。受制造业外移影响较大的行业和群体为劳动密集型行业和低技能劳动者,中间制造品和国内使用最终制造品生产外移的就业影响较大。在新的发展阶段,应将制造业外移与产业结构升级、劳动者素质提升和环境治理有效结合。
With labor costs’escalating and industrial upgrading,some manufacturing industries are shifted outward from China.The paper establishes an inter-country input-output model by using the data of the World Input-output Database.It empirically analyzes the characteristics of China’s manufacturing shifts and its employment effects from 2009 to 2014.The paper finds that most of the shifts are active rather than passive.The industries shifted outward are likely to be labor-intensive or pollution-intensive while the skill-intensive industries shift inward.The outward shift has little impact on domestic employment,with only 0.095%of jobs affected annually,which cannot explain the recent declines in manufacturing employment.Labor-intensive industries and low-skilled workers are more affected,especially in the industries with production shifts of intermediate and final manufacturing goods used at home.In the new stage of development,we should combine the manufacturing shifts with upgrading of industrial structure,improvement of labor quality,and enhancing of the environmental governance.
出处
《中国人口科学》
CSSCI
北大核心
2019年第1期33-46,126,127,共16页
Chinese Journal of Population Science
基金
安徽省哲学社会科学规划一般项目"制造业向外转移与国内劳动力就业研究"(编号:AHSKYG2017D133)的阶段性成果
作者简介
朱克朋,安徽工业大学商学院,副教授;樊士德,南京审计大学经济学院,教授。
