摘要
进入21世纪以来,以中国为代表的发展中国家制造业对外直接投资金额及占比开始显著上升,其对母国国内制造业就业的影响不容忽视。理论上,制造业对外直接投资可能基于替代效应与刺激效应对母国制造业就业产生正负两方面影响。本文利用35个OECD国家2003-2017年以及10个非OECD国家和地区2005-2018年面板数据模型,考察了不同发展阶段国家制造业对外直接投资占GDP比重与母国制造业就业的相关性,发现对于OECD国家而言,制造业对外直接投资强度对于母国制造业就业人数占比呈现先促进、后抑制的倒U型影响;而对于非OECD国家和地区而言,制造业对外直接投资会直接显著减少国内制造业就业人数占比;针对OECD国家不同时间段的滚动回归发现,2003-2017年OECD国家制造业对外直接投资的正向促进效应越来越小;而在制造业不同子行业层面,纺织服装等劳动密集型制造业对外直接投资显著降低了母国相应制造业子行业就业比重,而石化制药、机动车辆等技术/资本密集型制造业对外直接投资则增加了母国相应子行业的就业比重。中国在扩大制造业对外直接投资的同时也须注意其对国内就业市场的冲击。
Since the beginning of the 21 st century, the amount and proportion of foreign direct investment in manufacturing industry in developing countries represented by China have started to rise significantly, and its impact on domestic manufacturing employment in the home country cannot be ignored. In theory, foreign direct investment in manufacturing industry may have both positive and negative effects on manufacturing employment in the home country based on substitution effects and stimulus effects. This paper uses 35 OECD countries from 2003 to 2017 and 10 non-OECD countries and regions to use panel data models from 2005 to 2018. For OECD countries, the intensity of OFDI in the manufacturing industry has an inverted U-shaped effect on the employment share of the manufacturing industry in the home country. For non-OECD countries and regions, the OFDI of the manufacturing industry will decrease significantly proportion of domestic manufacturing employment;Rolling regression for different periods of time in OECD countries finds that the positive promotion effect of foreign direct investment in manufacturing industry in OECD countries from 2003 to 2017 was getting smaller and smaller;and at different sub-sector levels of manufacturing industries, foreign direct investment in labor-intensive manufacturing industries such as textiles and clothing significantly reduces the employment share of the corresponding manufacturing sub-sectors in the home country, while foreign direct investment in technology/capital-intensive manufacturing industries such as petrochemicals and vehicle manufacturing increases employment in the corresponding sub-sectors proportion. While expanding foreign direct investment in manufacturing, China must also pay attention to its impact on the domestic job market.
作者
马光明
郭东方
Ma Guangming;Guo Dongfang
出处
《宏观经济研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2020年第3期41-56,131,共17页
Macroeconomics
基金
国家社会科学基金青年项目“‘一带一路’战略下中国低端制造业产能输出可行性研究”(16CJL043)的阶段性研究成果。
关键词
制造业
对外直接投资
母国就业效应
劳动密集
Manufacturing industry
OFDI
Employment effect of home country
Labor-intensive
