摘要
随着中美主导权竞争加剧,亚太国家在中美之间的战略选择深受影响,美国亚太盟国更是在一定程度上面临着联盟与选边的双重困境。美国亚太盟国如何应对中美竞争,既有研究从国内政治、联盟政治、结构现实主义、新古典现实主义四个视角进行了分析。作者尝试基于新古典现实主义的视角,分析美国亚太盟国在中美之间的"动态平衡"战略。国际层面主要关注体系压力,国内层面主要聚焦战略偏好与共同利益。研究发现,美国亚太盟国为了缓解其所面临的双重困境,依据其面临的双重困境强弱,会基于战略偏好和共同利益在中美之间实施动态平衡,其战略选择体现为暂时优先考虑中美一方的单向动态平衡或双向动态平衡。为了便于更加清晰地理解美国亚太盟国的动态平衡战略,作者以2016年因"萨德"入韩所导致的"韩国转向"和杜特尔特上台所引发的"菲律宾转向"进行了案例研究。对于中国的政策启示而言,美国亚太盟国并非一味地追随美国,而是希望在中美之间寻求动态平衡,尽可能地兼顾经济和安全利益。中国应尽可能地去调适美国亚太盟国的战略偏好或利益关系,进而影响它们的动态平衡战略。
The intensifying competition over Asia-Pacific leadership between China and the U.S.has deeply affected the strategic choice of nations in this region.To some extent,America’s Asia-Pacific allies are confronted with double dilemmas shaped by the alliance and taking-side dilemma respectively.As to the issue how these countries should react to the ever-increasing competition between China and the United States,the previous research has carried out analyses from various perspectives,including the domestic politics,alliance politics,structural realism and neoclassical realism.This article,based on the neoclassical realism,aims to analyze the"dynamic balance"strategy adopted by America’s Asia-Pacific allies.At the international level,this article concentrate on the pressure of system,while at the national level,it focuses on their strategic preferences and common interests.The present study finds that,in order to relieve the double dilemmas,American allies have applied the"dynamic balance"strategy between China and the United States,according to the intensity of the dilemma,the strategic preference as well as their common interests.Furthermore,their strategic choices have reflected the unidirectional balance which temporarily prioritize one side,or the bidirectional dynamic balance with both sides.To better understand the dynamic balance strategy,the study has analyzed the cases of"the Turn of South Korea"triggered by the 2016 THAAD issue and"the Turn of the Philippines"appeared after Duterte came to power.As for implications for China’s policy,it reminds us that America’s Asia-Pacific allies,instead of blindly following the United States,hope to seek a dynamic balance between China and the United States,and take into account as much as possible their economic and security benefits.China should try to accommodate their strategic preferences or interests to have leverage on their dynamic balance strategy.
出处
《世界经济与政治》
CSSCI
北大核心
2018年第3期70-91,157-158,共22页
World Economics and Politics
基金
国家社科基金青年项目"中美亚太‘主导权’竞争及其影响研究"(项目批准号:16CGJ013)的阶段性成果
关键词
亚太主导权
动态平衡战略
选边困境
双重困境
战略偏好
Asia-Pacific leadership
dynamic balance strategy
the taking-side dilemma
double dilemmas
strategic preference
作者简介
凌胜利，外交学院国际关系研究所副教授，博士
