摘要
在诸多影响因素中,日美战略的匹配度和日本国内政治改革的紧迫度是影响日本对华政策选择的关键变量,它们的强弱变化和现实发展构成的不同组合,使得日本在后冷战时期对华战略行为呈现出约束性合作、软对冲、硬对冲、冲突性对抗四种形态。安倍执政期间做出的三次对华战略行为选择,其背后反映了这一逻辑,从而证明了上述假设的学理价值。据此可以判断,硬对冲取代冲突性对抗并逐渐向软对冲过渡,或将成为未来一段时期日本对华战略行为的主要选择。
Among all the driving factors,the matching between strategies of Japan and U.S.and the urgency of Japan’s domestic reforms are key variables that affect Japan’s policy options toward China,the changes of strengths and combination of which resulting in the four models of Japan’s strategic action toward China,respectively binding cooperation,soft hedging,hard hedging and confrontation.Abe’s three options of strategic action towards China were driven by the logic and prove the academic value of the hypothesis above.It can be implied that the major model of Japan’s action will shift from confrontation to hard hedging,which later will be gradually replaced by soft hedging in the coming future.
出处
《日本学刊》
CSSCI
2021年第1期57-87,161-162,164,共34页
Japanese Studies
基金
国家社会科学基金一般项目“冷战后日本战略文化的转型与我国的对策研究”(编号:18BGJ049)
国家社会科学基金重大项目“习近平治国理念之外交战略思想研究”(编号:15ZDC002)
作者简介
陆伟,同济大学政治与国际关系学院副教授。
