摘要
泰国政党政治发展以2006年政变为分水岭,经历了"过山车"式的调整,从"西式民主"折返到"泰式民主"。2014年政变后的党禁,更是严重阻碍了政党政治的有序发展。究其原因,关键在于,在泰国政党政治的发展过程中,保守阵营面临政治资源转化瓶颈,难以在以政党博弈为主的政治架构下获得与其政治资源相称的"权力—利益"地位,从而产生政治权力结构的持续张力,引发保守与变革冲突。短期来看,保守阵营依托2017年宪法复辟以非政党博弈为主的政治架构,试图在"还政于民"后延续权力主导地位;但中长期来看,随着保守阵营衰落,泰国政党政治将在新兴力量推动下再次转向"西式民主"的政治架构。
With 2006 as the watershed,the development of Thailand’s party politics has undergone a'roller coaster'adjustment,from'Western Democracy'to'ThaiStyle Democracy'.The party ban after the coup in 2014 further seriously hindered the smooth development of party politics.The key reason is that in the development of Thailand’s party politics,the conservative camp faces the bottleneck of political resource transformation.It is difficult for the conservative camp to obtain the'power-interest'status commensurate with its political resources under the political structure dominated by Party Game,thus creating a sustained tension in the structure of political power,and triggering a conflict.In the short-term,the conservative camp relies on the 2017 constitution to restore the political structure dominated by Non-party Game,trying to extend the dominant position of power after'returning government to the people'.But in the medium and long term,with the decline of the conservative camp,Thailan’s party politics will once again turn to the political structure of'Western democracy'under the impetus of emerging forces.
作者
周方冶
ZHOU Fangye(National Institute of International Strategy,Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing,China)
出处
《东南亚研究》
CSSCI
2019年第2期1-28,154,共29页
Southeast Asian Studies
基金
中国(昆明)南亚东南亚研究院一般项目"泰国政党政治转型对中泰战略合作的影响及对策研究"(CKYB201805)
作者简介
周方冶,博士,中国社会科学院亚太与全球战略研究院副研究员,中国(昆明)南亚东南亚研究院泰国研究所特聘研究员。
