国有资本划转养老保险基金能否破解降费率“不可能三角” 被引量：27

Does State-Owned Capital Allocation to Pension Fund Can Crack the “Impossible Trinity” of Pension Contribution Rate Reduction

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摘要本文构建一个包含国有资本划转机制的世代交叠模型,在现收现付制下考察降低养老保险缴费率政策和国有资本划转政策对经济增长率和养老金替代率的影响,探讨国有资本划转能否破解降费率"不可能三角"。研究发现:降低养老保险缴费率在促进经济增长的同时导致养老金替代率下降,国有资本划转在提高养老金替代率的同时抑制经济增长,意味着单项政策无法实现促进经济增长、确保养老待遇水平不降和维持基金收支平衡三个目标,也反映出两项政策存在互补关系。数值模拟显示,国有资本划转能否破解降费率"不可能三角"不仅取决于缴费率下降幅度,而且依赖于财政补贴力度。本文的政策启示是,建立与养老保险缴费率下降相联动的国有资本划转调整机制,并适当加大财政补贴力度,有助于更好地保障国有资本划转破解降费率"不可能三角"。 We establish an overlapping generation model including state-owned capital allocation mechanism to analyze the impact of reducing pension contribution rate policy and state-owned capital allocation policy on economic growth and pension replacement rate under the pay-as-you-go system,and discuss whether the state-owned capital allocation can crack the"Impossible Trinity"of pension contribution rate reduction.The results show that pension contribution rate reduction will promote economic growth and lead to a decline in pension replacement rate,and state-owned capital allocation will increase pension replacement rate and suppress economic growth,which means that a single policy cannot achieve the three goals of promoting economic growth,ensuring the level of pension benefits and maintaining the balance of pension fund and reflects the complementary relationship between two policies.Numerical simulations show that whether state-owned capital allocation can crack the"Impossible Trinity"of pension contribution rate reduction depends not only on the extent of decline in pension contribution rate,also on the intensity of fiscal subsidies.The policy implications are to establish a mechanism of state-owned capital allocation adjustment linked to the decline in the pension contribution rate and strengthen the intensity of fiscal subsidies,which will guarantee the state-owned capital allocation to crack the"Impossible Trinity".

作者景鹏王媛媛胡秋明 Jing Peng;Wang Yuanyuan;Hu Qiuming

机构地区西南财经大学保险学院

出处《财政研究》 CSSCI 北大核心 2020年第2期80-95,128,共17页 Public Finance Research

基金国家社会科学基金重点项目“人口转变与产业转型升级约束下全面建成多层次养老保障体系的实现机制及其支持体系研究”(编号18ASH016) 研究阐释党的十九大精神国家社会科学基金专项“全面建成多层次社会保障体系的实施难点及路径优化研究”(编号18VSJ095) 中央高校基本科研业务经费项目“划转国有资本对破解养老保险降费率‘不可能三角’的影响研究”(编号JBK2001036).

关键词养老保险缴费率国有资本经济增长养老金替代率 Pension Contribution Rate State-Owned Capital Economic Growth Pension Replacement Rate

分类号 F842.67 [经济管理—保险]

作者简介景鹏,西南财经大学保险学院讲师;王媛媛,西南财经大学保险学院博士研究生;胡秋明,西南财经大学保险学院教授、博士生导师。