摘要
人口老龄化必然对社会经济发展产生深远影响。运用消费可能性边界曲线模拟老龄化对经济稳态下居民消费、资本回报率、储蓄等的影响,量化消费与就业政策调控对老龄化所带来冲击的缓解程度。研究发现,老龄化对宏观经济呈消极影响。在劳动力参与率不变的假定下,老龄化导致人均消费降低、资本劳动比率增加、资本回报率降低;利用财政政策调节居民消费与储蓄的措施实施越早,对消极影响的抵消程度越大;提高劳动参与率可部分抵消老龄化所带来的居民消费水平和资本回报率下降等消极影响。总的来说,通过预期调控可有效缓解老龄化对经济的影响。
Population aging will inevitably have a profound impact on social and economic development.This paper uses the Consumption Possibilities Frontier to simulate the impact of population aging on consumption,return on capital,savings and other economic variables under a steady state economy,and quantifies the degree of mitigation of the impact through regulate and control of consumption policy and employment policy.The study shows that population aging has a negative impact on macroeconomy.Under the assumption that labor force participation rate remain constant,population aging leads to the decrease of per capita consumption,the increasing of the capital labor ratio and decrease of capital return rate.The earlier regulating household consumption and savings through fiscal policy,the higher mitigation of the negative impact will be;employment policy which increases labor participation rate can partially offset the negative impact such as decline in population consumption and the rate of return on capital.Overall,government can effectively control the impact of population aging on the economy by regulation.
作者
田成诗
马嘉彧
TIAN Chengshi;MA Jiayu(School of Statistics,Dongbei University of Finance and Economics,Dalian 116025,China)
出处
《人口与经济》
CSSCI
北大核心
2020年第1期63-74,共12页
Population & Economics
基金
国家社会科学基金重大项目“基于增加值率的中国经济增长质量研究”(14ZDB130)
辽宁省教育厅科学研究项目“大数据背景下模糊信息组合预测的优化模型及其有效性理论研究”(LN2019Z12).
关键词
人口老龄化
消费可能性边界
加权抚养指数
资本劳动比率
aging population
Consumption Possibilities Frontier
weighted support index
capital-labor ratio
作者简介
田成诗,东北财经大学统计学院教授,博士生导师;马嘉彧,东北财经大学统计学院硕士研究生。
