养老保险基金财政压力的化解路径研究——基于余缺调剂的全国统筹制度实施背景被引量：20

A Study on the Path of Solving Financial Pressure on Pension Funds—Background to the Implementation of a National Coordination System Based on Surplus and Deficit Transfers

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摘要 2022年1月我国实施以余缺调剂为目标的养老保险全国统筹制度。随着人口老龄化程度加深,全国统筹调剂制度能否可持续运转?会产生多少财政责任?这关系着养老保险乃至整个社会保障体系的可持续发展。本文运用计量和精算模型分五种情况研究全国统筹调剂制度的可持续性:第一,不引入任何政策干预;第二,实施扩大养老保险覆盖面、渐进式延迟退休年龄、提高征缴率等参量改革;第三,划转中央企业国有资本充实社保基金;第四,全国统筹调剂制度调整为上缴累计结余;第五,实施所有参量改革、划转中央企业国有资本并上缴累计结余。研究结果表明,当养老保险参量改革、划转中央企业国有资本充实社保基金、实施全国统筹调剂制度上缴累计结余等改革政策协同实施,全国统筹调剂制度可实现可持续发展,财政压力将大大减轻。 In January 2022,China implemented a national coordination policy for pension insurance with the objective of transferring surplus and deficit.Will the national coordination transfer system be sustainable as the degree of aging deepens?And how much financial responsibility will be incurred?This is related to the sustainability of pension insurance and the social security system as a whole.Using econometric and actuarial model,this paper studied the sustainability of the national coordination transfer system from five aspects:firstly,no policy intervention is introduced;secondly,parametric reforms such as expanding pension insurance coverage,progressively delaying the retirement age and increasing the collecting rate are implemented;thirdly,the transfer of central state-owned capital to enrich the social security fund is implemented;fourthly,the national coordination transfer system is adjusted to the contribution of accumulated balances;fifthly,all parametric reforms are implemented,central state-owned shares are transferred and accumulated balances are contributed.The study found that when the pension insurance parametric reform,the transfer of central state-owned shares to the social security fund,and national coordination transfer system with contribution of accumulated balances are implemented in concert,the national coordination transfer system will be sustainable,with much less fiscal pressure.

作者曾益陆颖 Zeng Yi;Lu Ying

机构地区中南财经政法大学公共管理学院

出处《财政研究》 CSSCI 北大核心 2023年第1期116-129,共14页 Public Finance Research

基金国家社科基金重点项目“发展多层次、多支柱养老保险体系研究”(21AZD070) 中央高校基本科研业务经费项目“全国统筹对养老保险基金可持续性的影响及政策优化:基于地方政府保费征缴行为的视角”(2722023BY016)

关键词养老保险全国统筹结余上缴财政责任 Pension Insurance National Coordination Balance Contribution Financial Responsibility

分类号 F840.67 [经济管理—保险]

作者简介曾益,中南财经政法大学公共管理学院副教授,电子邮箱:zengyi532@126.com;陆颖,中南财经政法大学公共管理学院硕士研究生,电子邮箱:buliuhuying@163.com。