摘要
逐步缩小城乡居民和城镇化职工养老保险给付差距,是中国新时期养老保险均衡发展的重要课题。本文以缩小城乡居民与城镇职工养老保险给付差距为切入点,研究中国养老保险给付的均衡发展。通过理论分析发现:人口城镇化中形成的养老人口红利向城乡居民养老保险均衡配置,具有养老保险结构优化效应。实证研究发现:(1)2020年,人口城镇化形成的养老人口红利系数为0.75,通过财政养老转移支付可以使城乡居民养老保险水平提高20.45%。(2)农村土地养老资源利用,加之财政普惠型养老金和养老人口红利财政养老转移支付,到2035年城乡居民养老金替代率水平可以达到30.1%,高于城乡居民养老保险适度下限水平,城镇职工和城乡居民养老保险均衡系数可以达到52.9%,有利于推进养老保险均衡发展。在此基础上,本文提出了相关对策建议。
Closing the gap of endowment insurance for urban and rural residents is an important topic for the balanced development of endowment insurance in the new era.Theoretical analysis finds that the pension demographic dividend formed in the process of population urbanization is balanced to the endowment insurance of urban and rural residents,which has the effect of optimizing the structure of endowment insurance.The empirical findings are as follows:(1)In 2020,the pension demographic dividend coefficient formed by population urbanization will be 0.75.The level of endowment insurance for urban and rural residents can be increased by 20.45%through fiscal transfer payment.(2)By 2035,the replacement rate of pension for urban and rural residents can reach 30.1%,higher than the appropriate lower limit of pension insurance for urban and rural residents,and the equilibrium coefficient of pension insurance for urban workers and urban and rural residents can reach 52.9%,which is conducive to promoting the balanced development of endowment insurance.On this basis,the relevant countermeasures and suggestions are put forward.
出处
《财政研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2023年第4期18-31,共14页
Public Finance Research
基金
国家社会科学基金重大项目“中国人口老龄化对经济增长影响路径与政策选择研究”(20&ZD077)
关键词
财政养老转移支付
人口城镇化
养老人口红利
养老保险均衡发展
Fiscal Transfer Payment
Population Urbanization
Pension Demographic Dividend
Balanced Development of Endowment Insurance
作者简介
穆怀中,辽宁大学教授,电子邮箱:hzmu@lnu.edu.cn。
