养老保险全国统筹的新阶段:全国统筹调剂制度能降低财政负担吗? 被引量：14

The New Phase of the National Pooling of Pension Insurance:Can the National Pooling Adjustment System Reduce the Fiscal Burden?

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摘要为缓解养老保险基金省际收支不平衡问题,我国于2022年1月实施养老保险全国统筹政策,执行全国统筹调剂制度。全国统筹调剂制度能否降低城镇职工养老保险财政负担?文章运用计量和精算模型得到如下结论:第一,与实施中央调剂制度的情形相比,全国统筹调剂制度将导致城镇职工养老保险征缴率下降6.28个百分点;第二,在实施全国统筹调剂制度情形下,2022—2050年城镇职工养老保险累计财政负担达到1198.21万亿元;第三,相较于实施中央调剂制度的情形,2022—2050年城镇职工养老保险累计财政负担将增加93.97万亿元,增幅达8.51%。综上,全国统筹调剂制度会显著降低征缴率,导致城镇职工养老保险累计财政负担加重。基于此,国家在推行养老保险全国统筹政策的同时,须积极应对养老保险财政负担问题,出台地方政府保费征缴激励机制。 At this stage,the basic pension insurance fund for urban employees is facing serious problems of continuous operation,among which the current income of the fund being not enough to cover the expenditure and the imbalance of inter-provincial fund are becoming increasingly prominent.To alleviate these problems,China implemented the national pooling policy of pension insurance in January 2022 and executed the national pooling adjustment system.Then,under the premise that the national pooling system affects the behavior of local governments in collecting insurance premiums,can the newly implemented national pooling adjustment system reduce the fiscal burden of the pension insurance for urban employees?This paper first uses a dynamic panel data model to study the impact of the national pooling adjustment system on the collection rate of pension insurance for urban employees;then,through an actuarial model,it measures the extent of the impact of the national pooling adjustment system on the fiscal burden of the pension insurance for urban employees.The study finds that:First,compared with the case of the central transfer system,the implementation of the national pooling adjustment system will make local governments less motivated to collect premiums,resulting in a 6.28 percentage point decrease in the collection rate of the pension insurance for urban employees.Second,under the implementation of the national pooling adjustment system,the annual fiscal burden of the pension insurance for urban employees in 2050 reaches 126.52 trillion yuan,and the cumulative fiscal burden from 2022 to 2050 reaches1198.21 trillion yuan.Third,compared with the case of the central transfer system,the annual financial burden of the pension insurance for urban employees in 2050 will increase by 4.38trillion yuan,or 3.59%,and the cumulative financial burden from 2022 to 2050 will increase by93.97 trillion yuan,or 8.51%,under the case of the national pooling adjustment system.In summary,the national pooling adjustment system will significantly reduce the collection rate and lead to an increase in the fiscal burden of the pension insurance for urban employees.Based on this,China needs to actively address the fiscal burden of pension insurance and introduce incentive mechanisms for local governments to collect pension insurance premiums while promoting the national pooling policy of pension insurance.The marginal contributions are that:Focusing on the new phase of the national pooling of pension insurance,this paper empirically analyzes the impact of the national pooling adjustment system on the fiscal burden of the pension insurance for urban employees,which provides an empirical basis and decision reference for the optimization of the national pooling policy of pension insurance.At the same time,based on the provincial pooling system of pension insurance,this paper approximates the impact of the national pooling adjustment system on the behavior of local governments in collecting insurance premiums,which provides a feasible research idea for such problems.

作者吴万宗邓智宇曾益张心洁 Wu Wanzong;Deng Zhiyu;Zeng Yi;Zhang Xinjie(Business School,Yangzhou University,Jiangsu Yangzhou 225127,China;School of Public Administration,Zhongnan University of Economics and Law,Hubei Wuhan 430073,China;School of Management,Jiangsu University,Jiangsu Zhenjiang 212013,China)

机构地区扬州大学商学院中南财经政法大学公共管理学院江苏大学管理学院

出处《上海财经大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》 CSSCI 北大核心 2022年第6期64-77,共14页 Journal of Shanghai University of Finance and Economics

基金国家自然科学基金“开放经济视角下中国缩小贫富差距的竞争机制研究:理论与实证”(71903130) 教育部人文社科基金“劳动力市场分割视角下行业内部垄断势力对工资不平等的影响机制研究”(18YJC790183)

关键词养老保险全国统筹调剂制度财政负担 pension insurance national pooling adjustment system fiscal burden

分类号 F842.67 [经济管理—保险] F812 [经济管理—财政学]

作者简介吴万宗(1986—),男,江苏扬州人,扬州大学商学院特聘教授,江苏省习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想研究中心特约研究员,复旦大学经济学院博士后流动站研究人员;邓智宇(1999—),男,广东韶关人,中南财经政法大学公共管理学院硕士研究生;通讯作者:曾益(1988—),男,湖北洪湖人,中南财经政法大学公共管理学院副教授;张心洁(1986—),女,吉林四平人,江苏大学管理学院副教授。