摘要
新冠肺炎疫情对劳动力市场和宏观经济带来深远影响,由此对城镇职工养老保险参保人数和缴费基数带来影响。为应对疫情,我国出台社保缴费减免政策,在减轻企业负担的同时,对基金收入有不利影响。本文采用合理的参数假设和精算模型发现,新冠肺炎疫情使得2020年当期中国城镇职工基本养老保险基金缴费收入比无疫情时下降37.28%。到"十四五"时期末,基金积累将下降36.50%—46.01%,取决于经济复苏程度和政府补贴力度。在此基础上,本文模拟了基金运营收益、政府补贴力度等相关政策措施的效果。
The Covid-19 pandemic has had a profound impact on the labor market and the macro-economy,and hence significantly affected pension insurance coverage and contribution base.In response to the outbreak,China has introduced policies to reduce social insurance contribution.The policy eases the burden on enterprises,but also reduces the revenue of pension funds.Using proper parameters and actuarial models,this paper finds that the Covid-19 pandemic reduced the contribution revenue of the Basic Old-Age Insurance(BOAI)of the year 2020 by 37.28%compared with the scenario without the pandemic.By the end of the 14th Five Year Plan period,the BOAI fund accumulation will be reduced by 36.50%to 46.01%,depending on the extent of economic recovery.The paper also simulates the effects of several policy measures aiming at offsetting the contribution cut,including increasing investment return and government subsidies.
作者
封进
赵发强
Feng Jin;Zhao Faqiang(School of Economics,Fudan University,Shanghai 200433,China)
出处
《社会保障评论》
CSSCI
2021年第1期64-77,共14页
Chinese Social Security Review
基金
教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目“积极应对人口老龄化战略行动研究”(17JZD028)
作者简介
封进,复旦大学经济学院教授、博士生导师。主要研究方向:劳动经济学、健康经济学和社会保障;赵发强,复旦大学经济学院博士研究生。主要研究方向:社会保障。
