摘要
【目的】分析川中丘陵区干旱重现期的分布特征。【方法】选取研究区8个典型观测站1960—2011年逐日气象数据,计算月平均相对湿润度指数M,并采用游程理论对干旱事件进行了定义,进而运用Copula函数构建干旱历时和干旱烈度的二维联合分布模型计算其"或"类型和"且"类型联合重现期,以及不同组合干旱事件"或"类型和"且"类型的最大重现期和最小重现期,同时探求了其在空间分布上的特征。【结果】川中丘陵区"且"类型干旱重现期大于"或"类型干旱重现期,且不同类型的最大和最小联合分布干旱重现期都随干旱历时和干旱烈度的增大而增大;"且"类型的最大和最小干旱重现期,除月内各烈度的干旱重现期中部小于其他地区以外,其余的干旱重现期都从川中丘陵区东北部向西南部显著递增;"或"类型的最大和最小干旱重现期都从中部向四周逐渐增大。【结论】只考虑单变量重现期不能够完全地反映干旱重现期的特征,需要同时综合考虑干旱历时和干旱烈度的二维联合重现期才能更好地描述干旱重现期的分布特征。
【Objective】Analyze the distribution characteristics of drought return period in the hilly area of central Sichuan.【Method】Daily meteorological data from 1960 to 2011 of eight representative stations were selected to calculate the monthly relative moisture index,and the theory of run was used to define the drought events.Then two-dimensional joint distribution model of drought duration and drought intensity was constructed based on Copula function to calculate the combined return period of the type of'or'and type of'and',as well as the maximum return period and minimum return period of different types of drought events,while exploring their spatial distribution characteristics.【Result】Drought return period of the'and'type was greater than that of the'or'type in the hilly area of central Sichuan,and with the increase of drought duration and drought intensity,the different types of maximum and minimum joint distribution drought return periods increased;For the maximum and minimum drought return periods of the'and'type,except for the drought return periods of drought intensity during each month in the central regions were lower than those in other regions,the rest of the drought return periods were significantly increased from the northeast to the southwest,while the maximum and minimum drought return periods of the'or'type gradually increased from the middle to the surrounding.【Conclusion】Only consider single variable return period will not be able to fully reflect the characteristics of the return period of drought,drought and drought intensity of two-dimensional joint return period need comprehensively consider in order to better describe the distribution features of the return period of drought.
作者
龙贻东
梁川
LONG Yidong;LIANG Chuan(Power China Guiyang Engineering Corporation Limited,Guiyang 550081,China;College of Water Resource and Hydropower,Sichuan University,Chengdu 610065,China;State Key Laboratory of Hydraulics and Mountain River Engineering,Sichuan University,Chengdu 610065,China)
出处
《灌溉排水学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2018年第S1期104-110,共7页
Journal of Irrigation and Drainage
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(41271045)
国家重点基础研究发展973计划项目(2013CB036401)
关键词
COPULA函数
相对湿润度指数
联合分布
干旱重现期
川中丘陵区
Copula functon
relative moisture index
joint distribution
drought return period
hilly area of central Sichuan
作者简介
龙贻东(1988-),男。硕士研究生,主要研究方向为水文学及水资源。E-mail:longyidong8810@hotmail.com;通信作者:梁川(1957-),男。教授,博导,主要研究方向为水文学及水资源。E-mail:lchester@sohu.com.
