摘要
东北三省是我国最大的粮仓,明晰该地的农业旱灾特征有利于开展粮食安全工作。文中依据东北三省1990-2020年的气象数据构建标准化降水蒸散指数,用以量化干旱特征,依据线性回归法确定引发不同级别农业旱灾的干旱特征阈值,进而通过Copula函数对不同级别农业旱灾的重现期展开研究。结果显示:1)东北三省均于1996年后整体呈现干旱化趋势,与之相关的农业旱灾于2009年前均呈现重灾化趋势,且均于2010年左右农业旱灾损失程度发生突变式下降。2)辽宁省轻度及以上级别农业旱灾过程的平均发生周期为15.26个月,吉林省为16.27个月,黑龙江省为22.36个月。3)较重度及以上级别的农业旱灾高频次发生区域集中在辽宁省的渤海湾沿岸和东北地区,吉林省的北部地区,黑龙江省的东部地区。研究结果可为合理规划东北三省的农业生产结构提供指导。
In the context of the fact that the three northeast provinces are currently the greatest granaries in China,a clear understanding of the characteristics of agricultural drought disasters in this region is beneficial to the implementation of food security work.In this paper,a standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index was created based on the meteorological data of the three northeastern provinces from 1990 to 2020,with a view to quantifying the characteristics of droughts.The thresholds of drought characteristics associated with agricultural drought disasters at different levels were determined with the linear regression method.And the recurrence periods of agricultural drought disasters at different levels were calculated through the application of the Copula function.The results showed that:1)The three northeastern provinces of China showed an arid tendency in general after 1996.The related agricultural drought disasters had tended to be more severe in the period until 2009,and the agricultural losses resulted from drought appeared an abrupt reduction around 2010.2)The average recurrence interval of mild agricultural drought disasters or above was 15.26 months in Liaoning province,16.27 months in Jilin province,and 22.36 months in Heilongjiang province,respectively.3)The areas with the high frequency of severe agricultural drought disasters and above were concentrated in the coastal stretches of Bohai Bay,northeastern regions of Liaoning province,northern regions of Jilin province,as well as eastern regions of Heilongjiang province.The findings can provide a reference for the rational planning for agricultural production structure in the three northeast provinces of China.
作者
杨文通
张丽媛
高宇
YANG Wentong;ZHANG Liyuan;GAO Yu(Shandong University of Technology,Zibo 255049,China)
出处
《干旱区资源与环境》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2022年第10期133-141,共9页
Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment
基金
国家社会科学基金项目(19CGL045)资助
关键词
干旱
农业旱灾
COPULA函数
重现期
drought
agricultural drought disaster
Copula function
return period
作者简介
杨文通(1998-),男,汉族,山东潍坊人,硕士,主要从事应急决策理论与方法研究。E-mail:weifangywt@163.com;通讯作者:张丽媛(1984-),女,汉族,山东泰安人,博士、副教授,主要从事群决策理论与技术和应急决策与灾害管理的研究。E-mail:taianzlyls@163.com
