摘要
传统风电功率爬坡风险评估方法难以定量分析爬坡特征量之间复杂的关系,以2015年莱州风电场的实测风电功率数据为例,选取爬坡持续时间和爬坡幅值这两个特征量作为风电功率爬坡事件的主要特征量,运用Archimedean Copula函数构建其二维联合分布,并根据离差平方和准则法对该函数进行优度检验,确定适合功率爬坡特征量的最优函数,同时定量分析风电功率爬坡事件的风险。研究表明:Archimedean Copula函数中的Clayton Copula能很好地反映风电功率爬坡事件发生的概率,为Archimedean Copula函数在风电场功率爬坡风险评估中的运用提供了有利条件。
It is difficult to quantitatively analyze the complex relationship between ramp characteristics by the traditional risk assessment method of wind power ramp.Taking the measured wind power data of the Laizhou wind farm in 2015 as an example,the present paper selects the ramp duration and ramp amplitude as the main characteristic quantities of the wind power ramp events and constructs the two-dimensional joint distribution by using the Archimedean Copula function.The OLS method of deviation squared sum criterion is used to perform the optimization test of the function parameters to determine the optimal function that is suitable for the characteristic quantity of power ramp,and then to quantitatively analyze the risk of wind power ramp events.The research shows that Clayton Copula in the Archimedean Copula function can well reflect the probability of wind power ramp events,providing favorable conditions for the use of the Copula function in the risk assessment of wind power ramp.
作者
程亚丽
王致杰
江秀臣
CHENG Yali;WANG Zhijie;JIANG Xiuchen(School of Electrical Engineering,Shanghai Dianji University,Shanghai 201306,China;School of Electrical Engineering,Shanghai Jiao Tong University,Shanghii 200240,China)
出处
《上海电机学院学报》
2018年第6期30-34,40,共6页
Journal of Shanghai Dianji University
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(51477099)
上海市自然科学基金资助项目(15ZR1417300
14ZR1417200)
上海市教委创新基金项目(14YZ157
15ZZ106)
作者简介
程亚丽(1991-),女,硕士生,主要研究方向为智能电网,E-mail:1397751867@qq.com
