摘要
研究洪水遭遇事件对防洪减灾具有重要意义。目前对于多源洪水遭遇的研究局限于多维非对称型Archimedean Copula,存在公式推导复杂、参数多及拓展性差等缺陷。本文引入椭圆Copula,分别建立洞庭湖流域多源洪水发生时间、时间-量级和过程遭遇模型,推求多情景下多源洪水遭遇概率,全面揭示了流域洪水发生时间、量级和过程的遭遇规律,探明了多源洪水过程遭遇时滞规律,并将模型估计结果与历年同步洪水资料的统计结果进行比较。结果表明,所提模型计算结果符合洪水发生的一般规律,并与实测资料的统计结果基本吻合,保证了分析结果的可靠性和合理性,可为提高流域防洪能力、保障防洪对象安全提供科学依据和有效支撑。
Flood coincidence probability analysis is essential to flood control and disaster reduction.Previous studies on multi-source flood coincidence are limited to asymmetric Archimedean Copula that has the defects of complicated formula,more parameters,and poor expansibility.This paper adopts an elliptic Copula function to construct numerical models for the coincidence of occurrence dates,datesmagnitudes,and runoff processes of multi-source floods in the Dongting Lake basin.The probability of flood coincidence is calculated for multi-type and multi-scenario cases.We reveal time delay in the coincidence process of the floods from three tributaries and compare the model calculations with the statistical data of synchronous field observation.The calculations are consistent with the natural patterns of flood occurrence and basically agree with the field observations,showing the reliability of our model.Thus,the proposed method helps improve river basin flood control and project safety against floods.
作者
仇红亚
李妍清
陈璐
张冬冬
齐尧乐
QIU Hongya;LI Yanqing;CHEN Lu;ZHANG Dongdong;QI Yaole(College of Hydropower&Information Engineering,Huazhong University of Science&Technology,Wuhan 430074;Hubei Key Laboratory of Digital Valley Science and Technology,Wuhan 430074;Bureau of Hydrology,Changjiang Water Resources Commission,Wuhan 430010)
出处
《水力发电学报》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
2020年第11期59-70,共12页
Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering
基金
中国长江三峡集团有限公司资助(0704169)
国家自然科学基金优秀青年基金资助项目(51922047)
关键词
洞庭湖流域
多源洪水遭遇
COPULA函数
多情景
时滞规律
Dongting Lake basin
multi-source flood coincidence
Copula function
multi-scenarios
time delay pattern
作者简介
仇红亚(1990-),男,博士生.E-mail:qiuhy16@foxmail.com;通信作者:陈璐(1985-),女,教授.E-mail:chen_lu@hust.edu.cn
