摘要
利用潮白河流域7个气象站1960-2011年逐月降水以及密云水库同时期入库流量数据,分别以SPI和SDI两个干旱指标表征气象、水文干旱,采用游程理论、M-K检验、滑动t-检验、Spearman秩相关检验等方法研究了该流域气象水文干旱特征,并探求水文、气象干旱的响应关系。结果表明:研究期内潮白河流域气象干旱多以短历时干旱事件为主,历时1-2个月的干旱事件达研究期内气象干旱事件总次数的67.18%;但是气象干旱的年干旱烈度及其历时未通过MK趋势显著性检验,其线性斜率值仅为-0.025和-0.005,变化趋势不明显。而水文干旱存在极长历时重烈度干旱事件,历时达4个月以上的干旱事件达研究期内水文干旱事件总次数的46.54%,最长干旱历时达45个月;且研究期内水文干旱的年干旱烈度及其历时均通过显著性检验,线性斜率值达-0.419和0.228,变化显著;二者均在1980年和1998年出现突变现象。自20世纪90年代末以来,潮白河流域水文干旱频繁发生,且多为长历时连续干旱。研究期内水文干旱滞后气象干旱约1个月。
Based on the monthly precipitation data from 7 meteorological stations in the Chaobai River Basin and monthly inflow data of the Miyun reservoir from 1960-2011,the Standard Precipitation Index(SPI)and the Streamflow Drought Index(SDI)were used to represent meteorological and hydrological drought,respectively.We analyzed the variation of hydrological and meteorological drought by using the run theory,moving t-test technique and the Mann-Kendall test method.The Spearman correlation test was further applied to explore the lead-lag relationship between both indices.The results indicated that:most of the meteorological drought events in the study period did not last long,and the meteorological drought events lasted for 1-2 months that accounted for 67.18% of the total amount of drought events in the study period.Additionally,the trend of drought intensity and drought duration in meteorological drought was not apparent,and the linear slope values of the two were only-0.025 and-0.005,respectively.Unlike meteorological droughts,the hydrological droughts had significant increasing tends in both drought intensity and duration with linear slope values of-0.419 and 0.228 respectively.We also found some hydrological drought events with long drought duration and greater drought intensity,the drought events lasting over 4 months accounted for 46.54% of the total amount in the study period,and the longest drought lasted 45 months.Both meteorological and hydrological drought showed abrupt changes in 1980 and 1998.Since the end of 1990s,long-lasting hydrological drought events occurred frequently.Analysis of the relationship between meteorological and hydrological drought indices showed that the occurrence of a hydrological drought event could be about 1 month behind a meteorological drought event.
作者
许怡然
鲁帆
谢子波
朱奎
宋昕熠
XU Yi-ran;LU Fan;XIE Zi-bo;ZHU Kui;SONG Xinyi(School of Resources and Earth Science,China University of Mining and Technology,Xuzhou,Jiangsu 221008,China;Department of Water Resources,China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research,Beijing 100038,China)
出处
《干旱地区农业研究》
CSCD
北大核心
2019年第2期220-228,共9页
Agricultural Research in the Arid Areas
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(51679252
51409246)
关键词
水文干旱
气象干旱
游程理论
干旱响应关系
潮白河流域
hydrological drought
meteorological drought
the run theory
drought response relationship
the Chaobai River Basin
作者简介
许怡然(1993-),男,江苏镇江人,硕士研究生,研究方向为水文水资源。E-mail:hsuijan@foxmail.com;通信作者:鲁帆(1981-),男,湖北天门人,博士,主要从事水文水资源研究。E-mail:lf9805320@163.com.
