摘要
中国地方债务当前面临违约风险上升、财政可持续性较差、市场预期不稳定性加剧等多重隐忧,这些问题已经成为社会各界关切的重点。中国地方债务风险虽然整体可控,但其与经济社会多个领域的关联较为紧密,通过信贷风险、债券市场风险、土地财政依赖以及市场预期效应等渠道,分别与银行体系、资本市场、房地产市场和实体经济等领域产生了风险的交叉共振。作为主权信用的重要影响因素,中国地方债务风险与跨境资本流动的相互作用,随着金融开放程度的提高而日益增强,并可能引起风险的跨境传递。为防范和化解地方债务风险,短期内要理顺财政与金融的关系,预防风险共振,弱化传导链条,并有效利用金融机构在化解风险方面的能力。中长期来看,应当持续推进深层次财税体制改革,减弱地方超额负债的客观需求和主观驱动。通过实行短期措施、调整中期政策和改革长期制度三者之间的联动,建立风险管理长效机制。
China faces multiple hidden risks such as rising local government debt default risks,fragile fiscal sustainability,and increasing instability in market expectations,which have aroused concerns across society.Although the overall risk of China's local government debt is controllable,it is intricately linked to various aspects of the economy and society;risks can resonate across sectors through channels such as credit risk,bond market risk,land-based finance reliance,and market expectation effects.As a significant factor influencing sovereign credit,the interaction between local government debt risks and cross-border capital flows could intensify as the country financially opens wider to the outside world,possibly leading to cross-border risk transmission.To prevent and resolve local government debt risks,in the short term,it is necessary to clarify the boundaries and relationships between fiscal and financial sectors,prevent risk resonance,weaken transmission chains,and effectively utilize the risk mitigation capabilities of financial institutions.In the medium to long term,it is essential to deepen fiscal and taxation system reforms,and reduce the real demand and desire of the local governments to incur excessive debt;that is,efforts should be made to establish a long-term risk management mechanism through the interaction among implementation of short-term measures,adjustment of medium-term policies,and reform of long-term systems.
作者
宋寒凝
谭小芬
殷高峰
Song Hanning;Tan Xiaofen;Yin Gaofeng
出处
《国际经济评论》
CSSCI
北大核心
2024年第6期44-67,5,6,共26页
International Economic Review
基金
国家社会科学基金重大项目“负利率时代金融系统性风险的识别和防范研究”(项目编号:20&ZD101)
中国博士后科学基金第75批面上资助(项目编号:2024M754046)的阶段性研究成果。
作者简介
宋寒凝,山东财经大学金融学院讲师,Email:honeysong1012@163.com;通讯作者:谭小芬,北京航空航天大学经济管理学院、北京航空航天大学低碳治理与政策智能实验室教授,Email:xiaofent@163.com;殷高峰,北京航空航天大学经济管理学院博士后。
