摘要
政府债务能否促进宏观经济平稳增长,又会如何影响财政可持续性?本文围绕政府债务规模与财政可持续性这对核心问题,从债务构成、形成机理、经济效应和风险防范等方面阐述了中国政府债务问题研究的理论进展和文献脉络,提炼中国学者独创性贡献和归纳中国研究构建的理论体系。首先,着重分析了国内研究在政府债务分类上的创新——提出了“地方政府性债务”这一全新的政府债务分类标准,并通过国际比较提出中国政府债务的构成呈现出地方政府债务占政府总债务的比重高、地方政府债务的隐性化问题较为突出的特点。其次,将中国地方政府债务的演进历程、形成机理和规模测算作为一个整体进行分析。中国学者立足中国国情,从财政金融制度互动、发展压力和隐性担保等角度开展了丰富深入的研究,初步形成了能够系统解释中国地方政府债务形成机理、体现政府债务领域中国经济学研究原创性的理论体系。再次,从整体联系和分部门效应两个维度,梳理了地方政府债务影响经济增长的相关研究。中国学者将央地财政关系、土地市场等引入理论模型,兼顾经济增长的“量”和“质”,为科学阐释地方政府债务的经济效应提供了来自中国的理论洞见和经验证据。然后,从财政平衡、筹资能力和偿债能力三个角度阐述了政府债务可持续性的理论内涵,并说明地方财政可持续性的关键在于地方政府债务的可持续性,而政府债务的可持续性离不开政府债务风险的防范化解。完善中国政府债务管理制度,既包括中央层面加强政府债务管理的顶层设计和制度约束,也需要从财政体制和金融体制深化改革以及破除不合理政绩观等方面下功夫。最后,从改进政府债务规模测算方法、推进政府债务形成机理的理论研究、深化对地方政府债务经济效应的研究、从财政金融复合视角研究地方政府债务风险四方面,对政府债务和财政可持续性领域的未来研究作了展望。
Can government debt promote stable macroeconomic growth and how does it affect fiscal sustainability? This paper focuses on the core issues of government debt size and fiscal sustainability, and describes the theoretical progress and literature on Chinese government debt from the perspectives of debt composition, formation mechanism, economic effects and risk prevention, etc., distilling the original contributions of Chinese scholars and summarizing the theoretical system constructed by Chinese research. First, we focus on the innovation of domestic research on the classification of government debts, i.e., a new classification standard of government debts as "local government debts". Through international comparison, we find that the composition of Chinese government debt is characterized by the high proportion of local government debt to total government debt and the prominent problem of implicit local government debt. Second, we analyze as a whole the evolution,formation mechanism and scale measurement of local government debt in China. Based on China’s national conditions, Chinese scholars have conducted rich and in-depth studies from the perspectives of fiscal and financial system interaction, development pressure and implicit guarantee, and have initially formed a theoretical system that can systematically explain the mechanism of local government debt formation in China and reflect the originality of Chinese economic research in the field of government debt. Third, the research on the impact of local government debt on economic growth has been sorted out from two dimensions: overall linkage and sub-sectoral effects. Chinese scholars introduce the central-territorial fiscal relationship and land market into the theoretical model, taking into account both the "quantity" and "quality" of economic growth, providing theoretical insights and empirical evidence from China to scientifically explain the economic effects of local government debt.Fourth, the theoretical connotation of government debt sustainability is explained from three perspectives: fiscal balance, financing capacity and debt-servicing capacity, and it is shown that the key to local fiscal sustainability lies in the sustainability of local government debt, which cannot be separated from the prevention and resolution of government debt risks. Improving the Chinese government debt management system includes not only strengthening the top-level design and institutional constraints of government debt management at the central level, but also requiring efforts in deepening the reform of the fiscal and financial systems and breaking the unreasonable view of performance. Finally, the future research in the field of government debt and fiscal sustainability is anticipated in four aspects: improving the method of measuring the size of government debt, promoting theoretical research on the mechanism of government debt formation, deepening the research on the economic effects of local government debt, and studying the risk of local government debt from the perspective of fiscal and financial complex.
作者
毛捷
马光荣
Mao Jie;Ma Guangrong
出处
《财政科学》
CSSCI
2022年第11期10-41,共32页
Fiscal Science
基金
国家社会科学基金重大项目(18ZDA097)的资助。
关键词
政府债务
财政可持续性
形成机理
经济效应
债务风险
Government Debt
Fiscal Sustainability
Formation Mechanism
Economic Effects
Debt Risk
