摘要
文章从外在经济冲击视角出发,在对2007~2019年全球54个国家基于前后向联系的出口复杂度进行测算的基础上,结合双向固定效应模型再次考察了技术创新、制度环境对制造业全球价值链分工地位的作用,并进一步借助广义可加模型研究特定因素下制造业全球价值链演进路径。研究发现,在外在经济冲击视角下,技术创新显著推动了制造业全球价值链演进过程,但制度环境却未表现出明显的正向作用。结合异质性检验发现,技术创新、制度环境对制造业全球价值链演进具有显著异质性特征,现阶段不同类型、不同地域国家制造业全球价值链演变的主要动力也存在差异。文章借助GAM模型研究了制造业全球价值链在技术创新、制度环境等特定因素下的演进路径,发现发展中国家因引入FDI而陷入全球价值链“低端锁定”的可能性。这对发展中国家在外在冲击背景下精准施策以推动制造业全球价值链分工地位高端攀升提供了一定的理论思考。
From the perspective of external economic shocks,we calculate the export complexity of 54 countries from 2007 to 2019based on forward and backward linkages,and combine the two-way fixed effect model to reexamine the effects of technological innovation and institutional environment on the status of manufacturing industry in the global value chain.Furthermore,we also explore the manufacturing industry evolution path of global value chain affected by specific factors,using the generalized additive model.It is found that technological innovation significantly promotes the evolution of manufacturing global value chain,but institutional environment does not show a significant positive effect.Combined with the heterogeneity test,we find that technological innovation and institutional environment have obvious country heterogeneity characteristics on the evolution of manufacturing global value chain,and the main factors for the rising status of manufacturing global value chain division in different types of countries are also different.Finally,we further find the possibility that developing countries are forced to"lock in the low end"due to the introduction of FDI in the global value chain.Obviously,this provides some theoretical thinking for developing countries to give precise strategies and promote the division of labor in the global value chain of manufacturing industry to the high-end rise under the external impact background.
作者
屠年松
龚凯翔
Tu Niansong;Gong Kaixiang
出处
《世界经济研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2022年第4期63-75,M0003,共14页
World Economy Studies
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目“区域价值链合作视角下GMS制造业价值链演进机理与升级路径研究”(项目编号:72063020)
云南省哲学社会科学规划项目重点项目“区域价值链合作视角下云南省制造业价值链升级路径研究”(项目编号:ZD201904)。
