摘要
如何协调城市之间的经济发展是一个重要问题,一种观点主张"严格控制大城市规模,发展中小城市",另一种相反观点主张推行强省会战略,以省会城市的发展带动地方城市的发展。两种政策主张的差异反映了人们在省会城市的发展是促进还是阻碍地方城市的发展这一问题上的分歧。本文使用中国工业企业数据库构造的1998—2012年城市—行业层面的面板数据来研究省会城市的工业发展对省内其他地方城市发展的影响,通过使用份额移动法构造的Bartik工具变量来解决内生性问题。回归结果表明,省会城市的工业发展会显著带动地方城市的发展:省会工业的发展每提高1个百分点,会带动地方城市的发展提高0.2—0.3个百分点。本文区分了实现溢出效应的两种机制:学习机制和分工机制。实证分析表明,学习机制在其中起主导作用。最后,本文从上下游产业关联的视角分析了省会城市工业发展的影响,发现了比之前更强的溢出效应,其影响为0.3—0.5个百分点。本文研究为强省会战略的实施提供了实证支持。
How to coordinate economic development among cities has been the focus of policy debates.One viewpoint advocates"strictly controlling the size of large cities and developing small and medium-sized cities".However,some scholars oppose restricting the development of large cities from the perspective of spatial agglomeration,and advocate developing large cities to drive the development of small and medium-sized cities.Accordingly,since the 12 th Five-Year Plan,some provinces,such as Shandong,Jiangsu,and Zhejiang,have successively launched the strategy of strengthening provincial capitals and advocated concentrating resources to give priority to the development of provincial capitals,enhancing the primacy of provincial capitals and making them bigger and stronger.However,this strategy has also received a lot of criticism,especially for the concern of possible"provincial capital blood-sucking".These criticisms held that the development of provincial capitals is realized at the cost of siphoning the human,material and financial resources of other cities in the province The difference between the two policy arguments reflects the divergence of views on whether the development of provincial capitals promotes or hinders the development of local cities.In this paper,we use data from the Chinese Industrial Enterprise Database to study the impact of industrial development in provincial capitals on the development of other local cities in the same province.We use this database to construct industrial development indicators by industry and by year for provincial capitals and non-capital prefecture-level cities(which we call local cities).We use both output indicators and input indicators to measure the level of economic development.The output indicator is the enterprise’s sales revenue of the main business,and the input indicator is the average annual number of employees reflecting labor input and the total assets of the enterprise reflecting capital input.To address the possible endogeneity problem,two methods are used in this paper.The first method,based on controlling city fixed effects,industry fixed effects and year fixed effects,further controls the cross-product term of city and year and the cross-product term of industry and year.The second method,which is the main method used in this paper,is to construct Bartik-type instruments by using the shift-share design.This paper uses panel data consisting of 181 industries in 278 non-capital cities spanning 1998—2012.The dependent variable is the logarithm of industrial development at the city-industry level,and the key independent variable is the logarithm of industrial development at the corresponding provincial capital and industry.Both the results of OLS estimation and IV estimation indicate that the industrial development of provincial capitals significantly increases industrial development in local cities.Moreover,the spillover effect is economically significant,with estimated coefficients around 0.2 to 0.3,namely,each percentage point increase in the industrial development of the provincial capital raises that of local cities by 0.2 to 0.3 percentage points.The paper goes on to analyze the reasons for the spillover effects of industrial development in provincial capitals.We distinguish two mechanisms:the learning mechanism and the division of labor mechanism.We use data from listed companies to identify these two mechanisms.The regression results support the learning mechanism rather than the division of labor mechanism.Finally,we empirically analyze the impact of industrial development in provincial capitals from the perspective of upstream and downstream industrial linkages.We find that the development of the provincial capital can also drive the development of downstream industries in local cities through the supply effect.In terms of net impact,the industrial development of the provincial capital can significantly contribute to the development of local cities,with an estimated impact of 0.3 to 0.5 percentage points,which is higher than previous estimates that ignore upstream and downstream industry linkages.This study provides empirical support for the implementation of the strategy of strengthening the provincial capital.The government should reduce the institutional barriers that restrict the development of provincial capitals.Local governments should actively formulate various preferential policies to encourage provincial capitals to become bigger and stronger.
作者
赵奎
后青松
李巍
ZHAO Kui;HOU Qingsong;LI Wei(School of Management,Huazhong University of Science and Technology;Agricultural Bank of China)
出处
《经济研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2021年第3期150-166,共17页
Economic Research Journal
基金
国家自然科学基金青年项目(71603090)
国家自然科学基金青年项目(71602062)的资助
关键词
强省会战略
溢出效应
学习机制
Bartik工具变量
Strategy of Strengthening Provincial Capitals
Spillover Effect
Learning Mechanism
Bartik-type Instrument
作者简介
赵奎,电子信箱:zhaokui2015@hust.edu.cn;后青松,电子信箱:tsingsonghou@hust.edu.cn;李巍,电子信箱:378633196@qq.com。
