丝绸之路经济带贸易潜力及影响因素研究被引量：22

Export Potential of Silk Road Economic Belt and its Determinants

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摘要本文基于对我国与丝绸之路经济带沿线国家的贸易互补性和竞争性分析,利用丝绸之路经济带上的19个国家2002—2015年的相关数据,构建时变随机前沿引力模型和贸易非效率模型研究我国对丝绸之路沿线国家的出口潜力和出口效率,并分析了导致贸易非效率的制度性影响因素。模型的回归结果说明,贸易潜力的决定因素有进出口国家的人均GDP、人口总量、地理距离、共同边界以及进口国是否为内陆国家。对贸易非效率的研究表明,生效的区域贸易协定、良好的基础设施、较高的贸易自由度和较高的货币自由度四个因素都能显著降低贸易非效率、促进出口增长。进一步地,本文将经济带沿线国家划归为核心区、重要区和拓展区三个区域,发现我国对拓展区出口效率最高、对核心区出口效率居中,对重要区出口效率最低。我国应在努力发展国内经济的同时,积极引导和参与区域经贸合作,尤其是与丝绸之路沿线国家开展合作,加强政府间的沟通交流,促进沿线自由贸易发展。 Based on the analysis of the trade competitiveness and complementarity between China and the countries along the Silk Road, building the time-varying stochastic frontier gravity model and the trade inefficiency model by applying the data of 19 countries along the belt from 2002 to 2015, it will study the potential and efficiency of the export from China to the countries along the road and analyze the institutional factors that lead to the inefficiency of trade. The regression results of the model indicate that the determinants of trade potential are per capita GDP, population, geographical distance, common border, and whether the importing country is a landlocked country. Studies of inefficiencies in trade have shown that four factors, such as effective regional trade agreements, excellent infrastructure, higher trade freedoms and higher degrees of currency freedom, can significantly reduce trade inefficiencies and promote export growth. Furthermore, this paper divides the countries along the Silk Road into three regions： the core area, the important area and the development area, and finds that China has the highest export efficiency to the expansion area but the lowest export efficiency to the important area. Based on the above research results, at the same time of striving to develop the domestic economy, China should actively develop or participate in regional economic and trade cooperation, especially with the countries along the Silk Road, and strengthen intergovernmental communication and promote the development of free trade along the Silk Road.

作者刁莉罗培胡娟

机构地区武汉大学经济与管理学院中国工商银行上海分行

出处《统计研究》 CSSCI 北大核心 2017年第11期56-68,共13页 Statistical Research

基金国家社会科学基金重大项目"一带一路相关国家贸易竞争与互补关系研究"(16ZDA039) 国家社会科学基金一般项目"中俄蒙经济走廊的建设与贸易互补产业合作研究"(17BGJ022)资助

关键词丝绸之路经济带出口潜力引力模型随机前沿 Silk Road Economic Belt Export Potential Gravity Model Stochastic Frontier

分类号 C812 [社会学—统计学]

作者简介刁莉，女，2000年毕业于乌克兰哈尔科夫大学获经济学博士学位，现为武汉大学经济与管理学院副教授，硕士生导师。研究方向为世界经济、国际贸易、地区国别经济。;罗培，男，2017年毕业于武汉大学经济与管理学院获经济学硕士学位，现为中国工商银行上海分行职员。研究方向为世界经济。;胡娟，女，武汉大学经济与管理学院研究生。研究方向为世界经济。