摘要
大数据灾害预警尽管并非具有"无比优越性",但它的确有助于摆脱传统预警存在的种种弊端。阳江市突发事件预警信息发布中心展现了大数据灾害预警何以可能的图景,初步形成了"无缝对接"预警平台、"全面覆盖"预警发布手段、"五区六岗"预警整合核心及"到底到边"预警整合目标。大数据灾害预警需要健全不同应急部门主动响应机制及跨部门预警合作机制,它不仅体现了"数据主权",更重要拥有了"预警主权",标志着从行政化向"互联网+"、从"预报"向"实报"和"精报"、从"感性治理"向"量化治理"、从"应急治理"向"源头治理"转变,但也存在如何充分利用大数据时间属性特点、如何让巨量"盲数据"活起来、如何提升公众主动获取与运用预警信息意识、如何避免大数据快速预警优势而出现"过度预警"与"过度应急"现象等局限。毋庸置疑,大数据灾害预警为学界、政府和实务界提供了极其宝贵的研究范式、政策工具和实践探索。
This article is not to put excessive emphasis on the unparalled superiority of early warning of disaster in the age of big data, but instead to maintain that it will help us to overcome weak points of traditional one. Data from the center of information issuing of early warning of disaster in Yangjiang City shows us the possibility of the application of early warning of disaster. This initially establishes a unified platform for early warnings, means of early warnings with comprehensive coverage, warning integration of different regions and posts and comprehensive aim of warning releasing. Such theory can be defined from six aspects, namely, revolution of ideas on early warning, establishment of unified platform for information releasing, openness of big data base, participation of third part, active management of the whole process and analysis of technology of data base and its data. System of early warning includes background, middleground and foreground platforms to monitor resources of disaster, predict signals of disaster and forecast damage of disaster respectively. The article maintains that big data has brought remarkable change to the early warning of disaster in its ways of information releasing and means of monitoring disaster, which is beneficial to bringing technology of big data into a full play in decision-making based on early warning, thus improving people＇s ability to control the resource of disaster, monitor disaster in an active way and response to emergent events. The early warning of disaster in big data era should further improve initiative in response to disaster of emergent departments at all levels and cooperation of different departments in early warning. Besides, we should also avoid excessive early warning and response to disaster brought by the advantage in fast speed of big data. In addition, the government acts as both collector and analyst of data of early warning. Disaster warning in the age of big data shows the advantage in comprehensive data, hut what is more important is that＇it boasts advantage in early warning, promoting the shift from cause-effect to correlation conformation, from administration to internet plus, from emotional to quantization administration, and from emergent to advanced administration. However, there are some limitations in how to take full advantage of fast speed and its promptness of big data, how to make full use of a banquet of unused data, how to raise the awareness of the general public to gain and apply information of early warning and how to overcome excessive early warning and response to disaster. There is no doubt that disaster warning in the age of big data offers valuable information for scholars＇ study, policies making and field exploration.
出处
《武汉大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》
CSSCI
北大核心
2017年第3期121-132,共12页
Wuhan University Journal：Philosophy & Social Science
基金
2015年广州市教育科学十二五规划面上重点课题(1201522893)
国家社会科学基金重点项目(15AZD077)
关键词
大数据
风险治理
灾害预警
预警信息
big data
disaster
risk
early warning of disaster
early warning information
作者简介
周利敏，广州大学公共管理学院，广州大学南方灾害治理研究中心；广东广州51006。Email：xplm9703579@sina．com。
