摘要
级联灾害的发生率及其相关损失日益增加的趋势是一项全球性问题。气候变化、城市化和全球风险格局不断变化等过程导致灾害脆弱性不断累积,对级联灾害风险治理构成重大挑战。本文以2008年中国南方雪灾、2010年冰岛艾雅法拉火山爆发、2011年东日本大地震和2012年美国飓风"桑迪"四个级联灾害作为研究对象,通过多案例研究,探讨级联灾害与其他灾害的本质区别,并给出级联灾害的定义与特征。本文认为,级联灾害是致灾因子在社会系统中经过非线性增强而形成的事故性灾难。在风险网络交互性和复杂性不断增强的背景下,级联灾害的成因并非仅仅由于致灾因子的叠加,社会脆弱性与致灾因子的耦合往往是导致级联灾害放大的升级点。级联灾害中致灾因子升级有三种典型路径:主动失败、制度固化和权力分配。级联灾害弹性框架的构建思路需要从降低社会脆弱性出发,以跨学科的方式建立全球性的跨界网络治理模式。
The trend of increasing cascading disasters and consequent losses has become a truly global issue.The increasing vulnerability and the changing global risk landscape due to processes such as climate change,urbanization,and the increasing complexity of modern society poses major challenges for cascading disasters risk management.Based on comparative analysis on the Southern China freezing rain and snow storm disaster in 2008,the eruption of the Icelandic volcano Eyjafjallajokull in 2010,the Tohoku earthquake in 2011,and Hurricane Sandy in 2012,this study discusses the essential difference between cascade disasters and other disasters and give the definition and characteristics of cascade disasters.We argue that cascading disasters results from the hazards’non-linear effect in social systems,which can cause catastrophic damage.In the background of increasing interaction and complexity of risk network,the causes of cascading disasters are not just the superposition of the hazards,but the coupling of social vulnerability and the hazards is often the escalation point that leads to the amplification of cascading disasters.There are three typical paths that lead to the escalation of hazards in cascading disasters:action errors,the ossification of social system,power allocation.The construction of cascading disasters’resilience framework is suggested to begin with reducing social vulnerability and to establish a global cross-border network governance model with an interdisciplinary approach.
作者
张惠
景思梦
Zhang Hui;Jing Simeng
出处
《风险灾害危机研究》
2019年第2期26-56,共31页
Journal of Risk, Disaster & Crisis Research
基金
国家社科项目“中国城市疫病灾害弹性构建研究”(项目编号:16CGL061).
关键词
级联灾害
社会系统
灾害升级
弹性构建
Cascading Disasters
Social System
Disaster Escalation
Resilience Building
作者简介
张惠,广州大学公共管理学院副教授,硕士生导师,研究方向为灾害治理与社区弹性;景思梦,广州大学大都市治理研究中心研究助理。
