摘要
本文探索了中国城市化和财政扩张的原理和机制,分析从工业化主导向城市化主导的结构转变中,政府行为是如何转变的,其未来的边界与风险又如何。进入新世纪后,城市化进入相对独立的大发展阶段,土地要素被重估,直接成就了政府的"土地财政",扩张了公共基础设施的投资,推动了土地城市化和区域经济增长;但土地的供给特性和跨期分配效应导致了宏观风险增加,房地产价格上升过快,阻碍了人口城市化,去工业化特征明显。数量分析表明,土地财政和公共支出扩张虽然对城市化有直接加速效应,改变了时间轴上的贴现路径,但如果超前的土地城市化不能带来城市"规模收益递增"效果,且政府财政收支结构和筹资方式不能转变,则城市的可持续发展就会面临挑战。这些问题均已经出现。转变政府职能,改变财政体制和筹资用资模式,才能推动城市化带动的经济持续增长。
This report probes into the mechanisms of China＇ s urbanization and fiscal expansion, explores the transformation of government character during the structural transition from industrialization to urbanization, expounds the future boundary and risks of the government behavior. Since entering the new millennium,the boom of China＇ s urbanization activates the reevaluation of land and propels the ＂land finance＂ directly, which promoted public infrastructure investment, land urbanization and regional economic growth. However, the supply property and intertemporal distributional effects of land induces macroeconomic risks. Rising quickly of real estate prices impede rural-urban migration and result in deindustrialization process. Our quantitative analysis demonstrates that, although the expansion of land finance and public expenditure directly accelerates the process of urbanization and changes the discount path on the timeline, the sustainable development of urbanization will be confronted with many challenges if the premature process of land urbanization limits increasing returns to scale and the structures of fiscal revenues and expenditures could not be changed. The emergence of these problems necessitates the transformation of government functions and fiscal system to promote a sustainable economic growth driven by urbanization.
出处
《经济研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2011年第11期4-20,共17页
Economic Research Journal
基金
国家社会科学基金重大招标课题“提高宏观调控水平与保持经济平稳较快发展研究”(批准文号09&ZD017)和国家社会科学基金项目“城市化、集聚效应与可持续增长”(批准文号llBJY053)资助
关键词
城市化
土地财政
财政扩张
经济增长
Urbanization
Land Finance
Fiscal Expansion
Economic Growth
