摘要
文章运用年龄结构-生命周期方法分析农民工的就业与城市化。指出,城市企业为了追求利润,在用工时主要招收高劳动生产率的青年农民工,导致了(1)乡村还存在大量低劳动生产率的中年剩余劳动力的条件下,城市出现全国性的民工荒。(2)进入中年后的农民工绝大多数无法继续在城市就业,因而工作年限成为农民工城市化的关键因素。作者应用该模型估算出农民工家庭进城定居所需的最低连续工作年限,并对农民工预期工作年限的分析与对农民工工作寿命表的估算相结合,估算出中国具备城市化最低限度经济能力的农民工总量。
With an Age-Structure/Life-Cycle approach,the paper analyses employment and urbanization of migrant workers.The paper points out two consequences due to urban firms' mainly recruiting young migrant workers with high productivity for profit maximization:on the one hand,nationwide shortage of migrant workers emerges in spite of a great amount of surplus rural labor with middle age & low productivity;on the other hand,when young migrant workers get older to their middle age,most of them cannot find jobs in cities any more.Therefore,their working lifetime becomes the key factor for their urbanization.This paper estimates the minimal continuous working time for migrant workers' urbanization.The amount of migrant workers with minimum economic ability for urbanization is estimated by analyzing the expected working lifetime of migrant workers and estimating the working life table of migrant workers.
出处
《中国人口科学》
CSSCI
北大核心
2008年第6期8-18,共11页
Chinese Journal of Population Science
