摘要
第七次人口普查数据显示,我国老龄化程度及其对经济的影响预计将进一步加深。从经济总量角度来看,老龄化可能降低劳动力供给及劳动生产率,挤出投资,降低经济增速。从自然利率的角度出发,现有研究倾向于认为人口老龄化会造成通缩压力,推动长期利率趋势性下行。从宏观结构角度来看,人口老龄化带来的消费倾向、消费偏好、要素禀赋的改变会带来产业结构的调整。从消费倾向来看,人口老龄化从"负担效应"、预期寿命增长、财产遗赠、消费限制等方面影响储蓄率。从消费结构来看,人口老龄化会带来国家整体消费结构的变化,医疗服务等行业受益最为明显。从要素禀赋来看,人口老龄化往往会推动产业由劳动密集型向资本、技术密集型转变。
As we can see from the data of seventh population census,the aging problem in China is expected to deteriorate.As for the aggregate variables,aging may lower the potential growth rate with less labor and lower productivity.As for the natural rate,abundant research has shown that aging population will lead to downward long-term interest rate through the deflation mechanism.Aging is also expected to influence the economic structure.For the Propensity to consumption,the net effect between aging’s"burden effect"and"precaution demand"determines aging’s impact on saving rate.From the perspective of consumption structure,medical service,Social and personal services is supposed to benefit from the aging society.Concerned of the factor endowment,aging society may witness the transform of labor-intensive industry to capital-intensive,technology-intensive industry.
作者
张文达
郭于玮
鲁政委
ZHANG Wenda;GUO Yuwei;LU Zhengwei
出处
《金融发展》
2021年第2期78-88,共11页
Financial Development
作者简介
张文达,兴业经济研究咨询股份有限公司,分析师;郭于玮,兴业经济研究咨询股份有限公司,高级分析师;鲁政委,兴业银行股份有限公司,首席经济学家,华福证券有限责任公司,首席经济学家。
