摘要
CPTPP协定是美国退出TPP协定后剩余成员国签订的新区域贸易协定,它为整个亚太经济圈创造了新的供应链机会,而且不久的将来有望建立以CPTPP为中心的价值链系统。CPTPP的区域排他性和可能构建的国际经贸新规则,势必会对身处CPTPP之外的中国造成影响并形成挑战,因此中国需要采取积极措施进行应对。文章使用2018年数据构建了一个包含26个经济体的全球一般均衡数值模型系统,并嵌入价值链和增加值贸易结构,系统量化模拟了中国应对CPTPP政策选择的三类九种情景的经济效果。研究发现:(1)中国单方面采取措施应对CPTPP影响的四种情景下,政策效果从高到低的顺序依次为建设中日韩自贸区、RCEP生效、不采取措施和进一步扩大对外开放。(2)中国加入CPTPP的两种情景下,和第一批扩容国家一起加入协定的措施效果更好,而之后独自加入CPTPP的效果略差。(3)如果美国重返CPTPP,中国的三种政策选择中,经济效果从高到低依次为优化营商环境、不采取措施、和美国一起加入CPTPP。因此,中国应积极考虑以合适的方式加入CPTPP,推动亚太地区的合作共赢与经济发展。
The Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership(CPTPP)has officially entered into force and is in the expansion stage.It will have a profound impact on the Asia-Pacific economic and trade structure and global economic and trade investment rules in the future.Outside of CPTPP,China needs to take active measures to respond,build or join more regional trading systems,and expand the"friend circle"of economic and trade cooperation.China’s measures to deal with the economic impact of CPTPP can be divided into three categories:One is China’s policy choice for directly responding to CPTPP,the other is China’s policy choice for joining CPTPP,and the third is China’s policy choice for responding to the U.S.returning to CPTPP.This paper constructs a large-scale general equilibrium numerical model system to simulate the effects of different measures in China’s response to CPTPP.The value chain and value-added trade are embedded in the model,and the imbalanced trade structure of"inside money"is introduced to optimize the stability of the model.In terms of data,the model parameters are calibrated and estimated using the latest 2018 data,a numerical model system is constructed,and the effects of the three types of response measures are quantitatively simulated.The simulation results find that the policy effects of China’s unilateral measures to cope with the impact of CPTPP,from high to low,are in order:construction of a China-Japan-Korea free trade zone,implementation of RCEP,no measures,and further opening up.Under the two scenarios of China joining CPTPP,the measures to join the agreement together with the first batch of countries to expand the capacity will be more effective.After the U.S.returns to CPTPP,under the three scenarios of China’s policy choices,the policy effects from high to low are optimizing the business environment,not taking measures,and joining CPTPP with the U.S.Among the three different options,the economic effect of actively joining CPTPP is the best;the effect of unilateral measures to deal with CPTPP is the second;and once the U.S.returns to CPTPP,it will have an adverse impact on China.The effective measure to deal with is to optimize the business environment to reduce trade costs.The results of the analysis enlighten China in terms of policies to accelerate the development of free trade agreement and expand the scope of the economic and trade"friend circle".At the same time,we should speed up domestic reform and opening up,optimize the business environment,and promote domestic system reform with new international economic and trade rules.In addition,we should actively consider joining CPTPP in an appropriate way to further promote domestic reforms and opening up to the outside world,and promote winwin cooperation and economic development in the Asia-Pacific region.The research of this paper will provide decision-making reference for China’s policy choices in response to CPTPP.
作者
李春顶
平一帆
张杰皓
Li Chunding;Ping Yifan;Zhang Jiehao(College of Economics and Management,China Agricultural University,Beijing 100083,China;School of Economics,Fudan University,Shanghai 200433,China)
出处
《财经研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2021年第4期19-32,共14页
Journal of Finance and Economics
基金
教育部哲学社会科学后期资助项目(19JHQ062)
国家社会科学基金重大项目(20&ZD119)
关键词
CPTPP
一般均衡模型
经济影响
数值模拟
CPTPP
general equilibrium model
economic impact
numerical simulation
作者简介
李春顶(1983−),男,安徽无为人,中国农业大学经济管理学院教授;平一帆(1996−),女,河南汝州人,中国农业大学经济管理学院硕士生;张杰皓(1998−),男,四川泸州人,复旦大学经济学院博士生。
