摘要
构建一个多国多部门的一般均衡模型,利用最新版GTAP模型量化模拟CPTPP经济效应、中国加入效应以及CPTPP扩容效应,并针对中国加入CPTPP可能因地缘政治和规则技术阻碍而搁浅,提出构建“中国版”跨太平洋伙伴关系协定的替代方案,并进一步模拟分析其经济效果。研究发现:中国加入CPTPP搁浅,CPTPP及其扩张给中国的冲击十分有限;中国加入CPTPP,中国以及CPTPP成员国均会获益;中国加入CPTPP搁浅,构建“中国版”跨太平洋伙伴关系协定会使中国以及参与国获得超过CPTPP的收益,而且该协定在成立初期就可以按照高自由化、高标准执行。为此,中国在积极申请加入CPTPP的同时,对内应推动市场化改革、完善相关法律法规并与国际标准对接;对外应加快开放,通过推动“中国版”跨太平洋伙伴关系协定构建新一代高标准贸易规则。
The Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership(CPTPP)has officially entered into force and is in the expansion stage.This paper constructs a large-scale general equilibrium numerical model system and uses the latest version of GTAP10 database to simulate the effects of different measures in China’s response to CPTPP. The simulation results show that: firstly, CPTPP and its expansion will do little harm to China’s economic interests;Secondly, if China can access to CPTPP, all can get the benefits on economic growth and social welfare;Thirdly, if China’s application is refused, the best way is to construct an alternative plan, and the simulation results prove that all can get more than CPTPP.While actively applying to join the CPTPP, China should promote market-oriented reforms, improve relevant laws and regulations in line with international standards, and speed up opening up, build a new generation of high-standard trade rules by promoting the “Chinese Version” of the Trans-Pacific Partnership(CNTPP).
作者
孟猛
郑昭阳
MENG Meng;ZHENG Zhao-yang(College of Economics,Tianjin Normal University,Tianjin3300387,China;Center forTransnationals'Studies of Nankai University,Tianjin 300071,China)
出处
《经济体制改革》
CSSCI
北大核心
2022年第6期166-173,共8页
Reform of Economic System
基金
天津市哲学社会科学规划一般项目“价值链视角下天津深入参与“一带一路”建设研究”(TJYY17-020)
南开大学跨国公司研究中心项目“区域性贸易组织与中国自由贸易区建设”(ctsnk202108)。
作者简介
孟猛,副教授,博士,硕士生导师,天津师范大学经济学院,天津300387;郑昭阳,副教授,博士,硕士生导师,南开大学跨国公司研究中心,天津300071。
