摘要
由于美国的退出,CPTPP规模大幅降低,日本取代美国成为协定的主导国家,在一定程度上降低了CPTPP的吸引力和影响力。但由于大部分条款的保留,CPTPP仍为高标准的贸易协定。通过分析2001-2016年CPTPP的贸易发展情况,本文发现CPTPP和中国互为重要的、不可或缺的贸易伙伴。中国与CPTPP成员国在出口上存在竞争关系,但在贸易往来上也存在互补关系,且与未和中国签订FTA的CPTPP成员国相比,中国具备它们所不具备的显性比较优势。因此,CPTPP的签订对我国的影响有限。通过GTAP模拟,本文发现CPTPP生效对我国的影响程度很小,且我国可以通过推动RCEP来抵消CPTPP的不利影响。
Due to the withdrawal of the United States,the size of the CPTPP has been greatly reduced.Japan has replaced the United States to hold the dominant position in the agreement,which has reduced the appeal and influence of the CPTPP to a certain extent.However,due to the retention of virtually the entire TPP text,the CPTPP is still a high-standard trade agreement.By analyzing the trade of CPTPP from 2001 to 2016,this paper finds that CPTPP and China are mutually important and indispensable trading partners.China and CPTPP countries are rivals in exports,but they are also complementary in a trade relationship.Additionally,compared with countries in the CPTPP that have not signed FTA with China,China has the RCA that they do not have.Therefore,the signing of the CPTPP has limited impact on China.Using the GTAP model,this paper finds that the impact of the CPTPP on China is very small,and China can offset the adverse effects of the CPTPP by promoting the RCEP.
作者
王孝松
武睆
Wang Xiaosong;Wu Huan
出处
《区域与全球发展》
2018年第3期46-71,155,156,共28页
Area Studies and Global Development
基金
中国人民大学科学研究基金(中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助)“中国企业应对国际贸易壁垒的策略体系”(项目编号:13XNI006)的阶段性成果
作者简介
王孝松,中国人民大学经济学院教授,研究方向为国际贸易理论与政策;武睆,中国人民大学经济学院2016级博士研究生,研究方向为国际贸易理论与政策。
