摘要
本文采用2015—2022年中国30个省份的面板数据,综合运用固定效应模型和工具变量法客观验证了人口老龄化对地方财政可持续性的负面影响程度,以各期基本养老保险基金赤字规模最大地区为基准,测算了省际基本养老保险差距,并将其作为门槛变量,进一步探讨了不同地区人口老龄化对其地方财政可持续性的异质性影响。研究结果发现:人口老龄化对地方财政可持续性的综合影响为负并存在显著的门槛效应。在基本养老保险基金收支状况与基准地区差距较小的省份,地方财政可持续性所受人口老龄化的负面冲击明显大于差距较大的省份。因此,本文提出完善基本养老保险均衡性转移支付核算办法,统筹纵向与横向基本养老保障财政转移支付,以及培育老年消费市场等政策建议。
This article employs panel data from 30 provinces in China from 2015 to 2022,and objectively verifies the negative impact of population aging on local fiscal sustainability using fixed effects models and instrumental variable methods.The inter provincial basic pension gap is measured using the region with the largest basic pension gap in each period as a benchmark and used as a threshold variable to further explore the heterogeneous impact of population aging on local fiscal sustainability in different regions.The research results found that the comprehensive impact of population aging on local fiscal sustainability is negative;The impact of population aging on local fiscal sustainability has a significant threshold effect.Provinces with a smaller disparity in basic pension fund dynamics relative to the benchmark region experience a significantly greater negative impact from demographic aging on fiscal sustainability compared to those with a larger disparity.Therefore,this articlesuggests policy initiatives,including the refinement of the accounting methods for balanced basic pension transfer payments,the integration of vertical and horizontal fiscal transfers for basic elderly care security,and the cultivation of the elderly consumer market.
作者
孙克竞
胡正轩
Sun Kejing;Hu Zhengxuan
出处
《财政科学》
CSSCI
2024年第10期55-72,共18页
Fiscal Science
基金
教育部人文社会科学研究项目“参与式决策下预算配置效率形塑地方政府治理能力”(项目编号:24YZA790055)的阶段性成果
国家社科基金重大项目“推动全国统一大市场建设的财税体制改革研究”(项目编号:24&ZD066)的阶段性成果
国家社科基金青年项目“稳就业视域下公共就业服务有效性及财政保障机制研究”(项目编号:20CGL056)。
