摘要
本文运用统计指标和统计数据从生产、需求和收入等多个角度对2020年中国经济运行的基本情况进行分析,总结过去一年中国经济运行的突出特点,探讨经济发展中面临的机遇和挑战,并对新一年中国经济发展情况予以展望。2020年中国经济运行具有以下突出特点:一季度遭受新冠疫情严重冲击,二季度以后呈逐季恢复、稳定回升态势;在世界经济增长中表现突出;从生产端看,二季度第二产业恢复较快,三、四季度第三产业恢复较快;从需求端看,投资需求成为拉动经济增长主力,出口表现超预期;从收入端看,规模以上工业企业利润增速恢复最快,全国居民人均可支配收入增速稳定回升;从经济增长动力看,一季度新经济新动能逆势增长,二至四季度稳定上升,对于减缓一季度经济下降幅度和拉动二至四季度经济增速稳定回升起到重要作用。初步判断,2021年预计经济增长7%~8%,年内呈高开低走的趋势;从生产端看,第三产业有望重新成为推动经济增长的主要动力;从需求端看,消费需求有望重新成为拉动经济增长的主要动力,投资需求有望保持稳定增长,其中,制造业投资可能成为稳投资主力,净出口需求在上半年可能保持增长,但下半年面临压力;从收入端看,全国居民人均可支配收入和规模以上工业企业利润总额将保持回升趋势;从经济增长动力看,新经济新动能对2021年经济增长继续保持重要推动作用。
In this paper,we analyze and forecast Chinese economic performance using statistical data and indicators,based on production,consumption,and distribution in national accounting.In addition,we summarize the outstanding features of economic performance,discuss the opportunities and challenges for economic development.In 2020,China’s economic performance had the following salient features.After suffering from the severe shock of COVID-19 in the first quarter,the economy recovered quarter by quarter and rebounded steadily and China’s economic performance was outstanding compared to the rest of the world.From the production side,the tertiary industry recovered slower than the secondary industry in the second quarter but the secondary industry’s recovery was faster in the third and fourth quarter.From the demand side,investment demand became the main driving force of economic growth,and exports was better than expected.From the income side,profits of industrial enterprises above designated size recovered fastest and the growth rate of disposable income per capita rebounded steadily.As for the economic growth momentum,in the first quarter,the"new economy"and"new momentum"kept increasing rapidly against the economic trend and grew steadily from the second to the fourth quarter,which plays an important role in slowing the first quarter’s economic decline and pulling economic growth’s recovery in the rest of the year.As for 2021,based on a preliminary forecast,the GDP growth rate is expected to be 7%to 8%,and in the first quarter,the GDP growth rate may be higher but it will be much lower in the last quarter.From the production side,the tertiary industry is expected to become the main driving force of economic growth again.While from the demand side,consumption demand is expected to become the main driving force of economic growth.Investment demand is expected to maintain stable growth,and manufacturing investment may become the main force of investment.The growth rate of net export may maintain growth in the first half of the year,but face pressure in the second half of the year.From the income side,disposable income per capita and profits of industrial enterprises above designated size will keep rebounding.From the perspective of the monument of economic growth,"new economy"and"new momentum"will keep playing important roles in economic growth.
作者
许宪春
唐雅
胡远宁
XU Xianchun;TANG Ya;HU Yuanning(Tsinghua University,Beijing,China)
出处
《经济学动态》
CSSCI
北大核心
2021年第1期35-48,共14页
Economic Perspectives
关键词
新冠疫情
经济运行
逐季回升
审慎乐观
COVID-19
Economic Performance
Gradually Rebound
Cautiously Optimistic
作者简介
许宪春,清华大学中国经济社会数据研究中心、清华大学经济管理学院,邮政编码:100084,电子邮箱:xuxch3@sem.tsinghua.edu.cn;唐雅,清华大学经济管理学院,邮政编码:100084,电子邮箱:tangy.18@sem.tsinghua.edu.cn;胡远宁,清华大学中国经济社会数据研究中心、清华大学经济管理学院,邮政编码:100084,电子邮箱:huyn@sem.tsinghua.edu.cn。
