摘要
本文研究我国新冠病毒肺炎疫情的时空动态、人口流动模式的异质性影响及防控政策的差异性与有效性。研究发现,疫情暴发阶段以跃迁式扩散为主,而后由邻接式扩散主导,二者的结合推动疫情达到高峰,最终形成了发达省市、周边省份、人口大省等三类疫情热点区,且边境地区的疫情输入风险也早有预兆;长期在鄂务工者、经商者的返乡流与短期商务旅游流对不同地区、不同阶段的疫情发展具有异质性影响;卫生防疫和社会治理体系的良性互动是疫情防控成功的关键所在。论文最后讨论了地理学时空动态分析的学科优势,人口流动的结构性分析对解读疫情扩散机制和构建公共卫生应急体系的关键作用以及大数据和传统数据互补融合的重要性。
This study aims to analyze the spatio-temporal dynamics of COVID-19 pandemic in China,the heterogeneous effects of human mobility,and the effectiveness of prevention and control policies.Results show that leapfrogging spreading is dominant in the outbreak stage of the pandemic,whereas adjacent spreading is dominant thereafter.Their combination leads the pandemic to reach its peak,eventually forming three types of pandemic hot spots,namely,developed provinces and cities,surrounding provinces,and populous provinces.Moreover,early signs of pandemic import have been observed in the border areas.The return of long-term migrant workers and businessmen for family reunion in the Spring Festival and short-term business tour flow has heterogeneous effects on the development of the pandemic in different regions and various stages.The positive interaction between sanitary and anti-epidemic work and social governance system is the key to the success of pandemic prevention and control.Lastly,this research discusses the discipline advantages of geography in spatio-temporal dynamic analysis,key role of the structural analysis of human mobility in interpreting the epidemic spreading mechanism and building a public health emergency system,and importance of the complementary integration of big data and traditional data.
作者
刘涛
陈家醇
靳永爱
肖雯
Liu,T.;Chen,J.C.;Jin,Y.A.;Xiao,W.(College of Urban and Environmental Sciences,Peking University,Beijing 100871,China;Center for Urban Future Research,Peking University,Beijing 100871,China;Center for Population and Development Studies,Renmin University of China,Beijing 100872,China)
出处
《全球变化数据学报（中英文）》
CSCD
2020年第3期224-240,224-240,共34页
Journal of Global Change Data & Discovery
基金
国家自然科学基金(41801146)
北京大学新冠肺炎防控攻关专项
教育部(18YJC840022)
英国研究理事会全球挑战研究基金(ES/P011055/1)
作者简介
通讯作者:靳永爱,ABG-5542-2020,中国人民大学人口与发展研究中心,jinyongai0416@ruc.edu.cn
