摘要
建立契合经济社会发展主旋律的地方官员晋升考核制度对于完善推动高质量发展激励约束机制具有重要意义,这是以制度助力区域高质量发展的有效举措,亦是党的二十届三中全会部署的重要改革任务。为此,本文首先利用分层动态因子模型量化测度了区域高质量发展水平,随后将其引入官员晋升研究,深入阐释了官员晋升考核制度的客观变化规律。研究发现:第一,近年来,经济高质量发展取得突出成效,呈“稳中有进”态势;第二,高质量发展是现阶段官员晋升考核的核心指标;第三,“GDP锦标赛”式的官员晋升制度已不复存在,取而代之的是高质量发展目标,同时以高质量发展为目标的良性竞争并不会引发“以邻为壑”的现象;第四,尽管“高质量发展竞赛”是一种良性竞争,但也可能招致一些矛盾。因此,各级政府应当理性追求高质量发展目标,锚定持续推进经济高质量发展,全面助力社会主义现代化强国建设。
Establishing a promotion assessment system for local officials that aligns with the main theme of economic and social development is of great significance for improving the incentive and restraint mechanisms for promoting high-quality development.This is an effective measure to help high-quality regional development through institutions,and also an important reform task set out at the Third Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Party of China.Therefore,we first quantitatively measures the level of high-quality regional development using a hierarchical dynamic factor model,and then introduces it into the study of official promotion,deeply explaining the objective change rules of the official promotion assessment system.We find that remarkable achievements have been made in high-quality economic development in recent years,showing a trend of“steady progress”.We also find that high-quality development has become the core indicator in the promotion evaluation for officials at this stage.Besides,the“GDP championship”type of official promotion system has disappeared,replaced by high-quality development goals.At the same time,healthy competition aimed at high-quality development does not lead to the phenomenon of“beggar-thy-neighbor”.Although the“high-quality development competition”is a healthy competition,it may lead to some contradictions.According to these findings,governments at all levels should rationally pursue high-quality development goals,anchor the continuous promotion of high-quality economic development,and comprehensively assist in the construction of a modern socialist powerful country.
作者
刘伟江
刘冰琪
李轩
LIU Weijiang;LIU Bingqi;LI Xuan
出处
《中央财经大学学报》
北大核心
2025年第10期5-25,共21页
Journal of Central University of Finance & Economics
基金
国家社会科学基金重大项目“大数据方法在宏观经济预测中的应用研究”(项目编号:23&ZD075)。
关键词
官员晋升考核
经济高质量发展
分层动态因子模型
Officerpromotion assessment
High-quality economic development
Hierarchical dynamic factor model
作者简介
通讯作者:刘伟江,女,1967年9月生,吉林大学数量经济研究中心教授,博士生导师,研究方向为微观经济计量分析、区域经济学,联系方式为liuwj@jlu.edu.cn;刘冰琪,女,2001年1月生,吉林大学数量经济研究中心博士研究生,研究方向为微观经济计量分析;李轩,女,1998年3月生,东北财经大学公共管理学院博士研究生,研究方向为行政管理。
