摘要
研究目标:描述中国数字普惠金融发展现状,测度发展面临问题并展望未来发展前景。研究方法:基于2013~2018年中国数字普惠金融指数与大连市住户调查数据,运用面板固定效应回归模型、中介模型等进行理论探讨和实证检验。研究发现:中国数字普惠金融发展程度逐年提升,31个省份之间存在差异、集聚与收敛特征。构建面板固定效应回归模型发现,数字普惠金融显著促进居民消费。具体而言,数字普惠金融对主城区、镇中心区与村庄居民消费促进作用显著,而对城乡结合区、镇乡结合区与乡中心区居民消费无显著影响;对低收入与中等收入家庭居民消费促进作用显著,而对较高收入与高收入家庭无显著影响;对学历越高的居民消费促进程度越大。研究创新:采用住户调查数据,数据中居民消费部分由住户逐日登记得到;居民城乡变量按照国家统计局制定的分类方法,分为主城区、城乡结合区、镇中心区、镇乡结合区、乡中心区、村庄。研究价值:就进一步促进数字普惠金融发展提出有益思考与建议。
Research Objectives:To describe the development status,measure the problems,and forecast the prospects of digital inclusive finance in China.Research Methods:Based on the household survey data of Dalian and the Digital Inclusive Financial Index of China,theoretical discussion and empirical tests are conducted using apanel fixed effect regression model and mediation model.Research Findings:Digital inclusive finance is increasingly developing every year,with differences,agglomeration,and convergence characteristics among 31 provinces.By building apanel fixed effect regression model,this study finds that digital inclusive finance can significantly promote household consumption.The trend is significant in main urban areas,town center areas,and villages,while it has no significant effect in the combined urban and rural areas,combined towns and rural areas,and rural center areas.It has a significant effect on the consumption of low and middle income families,but has no significant effect on that of high and higher income families.In addition,the higher the degree of education,the greater the impact of consumption.Through the construction of the mediation model,this study shows the influence mechanism of digital inclusive finance on household consumption to reduce the uncertainty risk faced by residents.Research Innovations:This study uses household survey data,and the consumption part of the data is obtained from daily household registration.According to the classification method formulated by the National Bureau of Statistics,the variables of urban and rural residents can be divided into main urban areas,combined urban and rural areas,town center areas,combined towns and rural areas,rural center areas,villages.The mediation model reveals that the reduction of uncertainty risk is the internal situation of digital inclusive finance to promote household consumption.Research Value:This study puts forward effective considerations and suggestions to promote the development of digital inclusive finance to improve residents’consumption.
作者
孙玉环
张汀昱
王雪妮
李丹阳
Sun Yuhuan;Zhang Tingyu;Wang Xueni;Li Danyang(School of Statistics,Dongbei University of Finance and Economics)
出处
《数量经济技术经济研究》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2021年第2期43-59,共17页
Journal of Quantitative & Technological Economics
基金
国家社会科学青年基金项目“中国民生产业发展效率测度与研究”(18CTJ006)的资助
关键词
数字金融
居民消费
中介模型
住户调查
Digital Finance
Household Consumption
Mediation Model
Household Survey
