摘要
本文在探讨中国经济高质量转型的现实与理论逻辑基础上,通过构建理论模型分析影响经济发展质量的主要因素,并由此形成测度中国经济发展质量的多指标综合评价体系,从而为经济高质量发展的讨论由定性分析向定量研究拓展进行了初步的探索。通过选取各方面具有代表性的基础经济指标,本文测度了1993—2018年中国经济发展质量状况并分阶段对经济发展质量变动的原因进行了分析。结果显示,1993年来中国经济发展质量总体处于逐步提升状态,但各阶段的提升速度存在明显差异,中国经济增速变化与经济发展质量变迁并不具有趋同性。在经济增长处于中高速阶段的2013—2018年,经济发展质量提升最为快速。从各方面指标贡献看,经济效率与稳定性及经济成果分配指标的贡献率随阶段变化波动较大;人力资本及其分布的贡献率,呈倒U型曲线特征;而自然资源与环境贡献率,则呈U型曲线特征;社会相关指标对经济发展质量提升贡献量2013—2018年较前几个阶段有所增大。本研究具有两方面的政策含义:一是中国在推动经济高质量发展方面稳步推进,但潜在的挑战依然较多,推动高质量发展仍需付出努力;二是要加快推动以人民为中心的发展转型,提升人力资本,促进知识阶层崛起,形成有利于广义人力资本形成的消费与创新效率补偿的良性互动。
After high-speed economic growth for over three decades,China has made great achievements in its economic development.It has become the world’s second largest economy,and China’s output of many industrial products ranks first in the world.However,in the process of rapid economic growth,some problems,such as the imbalance of regional development,the widening of income distribution gap,the fading of traditional demographic dividend,the decline of the rate of return on capital,and resource and environmental constraints to growth,have also attracted the attention of scholars and policy makers.Based on the changes in China’s economic development environment and the aim of a fundamental change of the traditional development mode,the 19 th National Congress of the Communist Party of China made a major conclusion that the Chinese economy has changed from a stage of high-speed growth to a stage of high-quality development.Different from high-speed growth,high-quality economic development covers not only economic factors but also social and environmental aspects.On the basis of discussing the reality and theoretical logic of China’s high-quality economic transformation,this paper analyzes the main factors influencing the quality of economic development by constructing a theoretical model from the perspective of the overall social welfare,and forms a multi-index comprehensive assessment system to measure the quality of China’s economic development,thus making an exploration of the discussion of high-quality economic development from qualitative analysis to quantitative research.The index system of this paper includes five categories,which are the distribution of economic achievements,human capital and its distribution,economic efficiency and stability,natural resources and environment,and social security and social environment.By selecting representative basic economic indicators,this paper measures the quality of China’s economic development from 1993 to 2018,and analyzes the reasons for the changes in the quality of economic development for every five years.The results show that the quality of China’s economic development has been gradually improved since 1993,but there are differences in the speed of improvement in each stage.The changes in China’s economic growth rate and the changes in economic development quality do not share the same trend.The speed of economic development had been relatively slow in 1993-1998 and 2003-2008,when the economic growth rate was very high.In the five years between 2013 and 2018,the economic quality improved the fastest in the medium-high economic growth stage.This shows that economic development should be examined not only from the single dimension of GDP growth,but from a broader perspective.As for index contribution,the contribution rate of economic efficiency and stability and economic achievement distribution fluctuates greatly.The contribution rate of human capital and its distribution presents an"inverted-U"shape,while the contribution rate of natural resources and environment presents a"U"shape.And the contribution of social related indicators to the improvement of economic development quality from 2013 to 2018 is larger than that of previous years.This study has two policy implications.The first is that China has made steady progress in promoting high-quality economic development,but there are still many potential challenges.Second,it is necessary to accelerate the transformation of people-centered development,enhance human capital,motivate the development of the intellectual class,and form a benign interaction between consumption and innovation efficiency that is conducive to the formation of generalized human capital.From 2021 to 2035,based on the reality of urbanization and post well-off development stage,China should adjust the macro-economic incentive target and the matching resource allocation system,so as to smoothly enter the ranks of high-income countries.In 2035,China’s per capita GDP may exceed USD 20,000 and become a high-income country.The modernization of national governance will become a more important task in the design of national system.
作者
杨耀武
张平
YANG Yaowu;ZHANG Ping(Institute of Economics,Chinese Academy of Social Sciences)
出处
《经济研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2021年第1期26-42,共17页
Economic Research Journal
基金
国家社会科学基金重大项目(20ZDA043)的支持
关键词
经济高质量发展
理论逻辑
综合评价体系
治理机制
High-quality Economic Development
Theoretical Logic
Comprehensive Assessment System
Governance Mechanism
作者简介
杨耀武、中国社会科学院经济研究所中国经济增长前沿课题组,课题组负责人:张平、刘霞辉,邮政编码:100836,电子信箱:yyangmails@163.com;张平,中国社会科学院经济研究所中国经济增长前沿课题组,课题组负责人:张平、刘霞辉,邮政编码:100836
