国家级城市群政策对中国减污降碳的影响研究

Research on the Impact of National-Level Urban Agglomeration Policies on Pollution Reduction and Carbon Emission Decrease in China

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摘要中国政府正在积极推进国家级城市群建设,但学术界对其在减污降碳方面的潜在作用关注较少。基于2005—2021年中国19个城市群的面板数据,利用双重差分法的实证研究表明,国家级城市群政策具有减污降碳效应,政策实施时间越长该效应越明显,中心城市的减污降碳带动范围在周边350~450千米内。国家级城市群政策通过增加环境从业人员数和提高能源利用效率促进减污,通过推动产业结构转型促进降碳,然而,减污和降碳机制未展现协同作用。国家级城市群政策的减污降碳效应具有异质性,成渝和中原城市群呈现显著的减污降碳效应,而哈长城市群呈现显著的增污效应;中西部城市、城区常住人口超过300万人的城市和政府减污降碳治理力度强的城市表现出更显著的减污效应。国家级城市群政策的减污降碳效应具有空间溢出性,且相比于直接效应,其溢出效应更大。因此,建议地方政府加快制定城市群发展规划,建立减污和降碳双目标驱动长效机制和区域合作减排机制,共同推动城市群环境与经济高质量发展。 The Chinese government is actively promoting the construction of national-level urban agglomerations,but there has been limited attention on their potential role in pollution reduction and carbon emission decrease in the academic circles.Based on the panel data from 19 urban agglomerations in China from 2005 to 2021,this study conducts an empirical study using a difference-in-differences model.The findings show that the national urban agglomeration policy has a pollution reduction and carbon reduction effect,which becomes more pronounced as the policy is implemented for a longer period of time.The driving range of pollution reduction and carbon reduction by central cities is within a radius of 350 to 450 kilometers.The national urban agglomeration policy promotes pollution reduction by increasing the number of environmental practitioners and improving energy utilization efficiency,and promotes carbon reduction by promoting industrial restructuring.However,the mechanisms of pollution reduction and carbon reduction have not demonstrated synergistic effects.The effect of national-level urban agglomeration policies on pollution reduction and carbon reduction is heterogeneous.The urban agglomerations in Chengdu-Chongqing and Central Plains exhibit significant effects on pollution reduction and carbon reduction,while the Harbin-Changchun urban agglomeration shows a significant effect on pollution increase.The central and western cities,the cities with a permanent resident population of over 3 million,and the cities with strong government governance efforts in pollution reduction and carbon reduction demonstrate more significant effects on pollution reduction.The pollution reduction and carbon emission reduction effects of national-level urban agglomeration policies exhibit spatial spillover characteristics,and these spillover effects are more significant compared to the direct effects.Therefore,it is recommended that local governments should accelerate the formulation of urban agglomeration development plans,establish a long-term mechanism driven by the dual goals of pollution reduction and carbon emission reduction,and implement a regional cooperative emission reduction mechanism,jointly promoting the high-quality environmental and economic development in urban agglomerations.

作者崔连标王佳雪 Cui Lian-biao;Wang Jia-xue(Anhui University of Finance and Economics,Bengbu 233000;Suzhou University,Suzhou 215021,China)

机构地区安徽财经大学统计与应用数学学院苏州大学商学院

出处《当代财经》北大核心 2025年第8期3-16,共14页 Contemporary Finance and Economics

基金国家自然科学基金面上项目“不确定性视角下中国减污降碳协同增效的复杂系统建模及政策优化研究”(72374001) 国家自然科学基金面上项目“不确定条件下中国温室气体与大气污染物的协同控制研究”(71974001) 安徽省社会科学创新发展研究课题重大项目“安徽扎实推进‘双碳’战略实践研究”(2022ZD006)。

关键词国家级城市群政策减污降碳双重差分法溢出效应 national-level urban agglomeration policies pollution reduction and carbon emission decrease difference-in-differences method spillover effects

分类号 F205 [经济管理—国民经济]

作者简介崔连标,安徽财经大学教授,管理学博士,主要从事资源环境统计研究;通信作者:王佳雪,苏州大学博士研究生,主要从事资源环境管理研究,联系方式,wangjiaxue2000@163.com。