摘要
本文基于三次产业的就业份额和产出份额数据,测度1978—2016年中国分地区的产业结构扭曲指数,并利用空间面板模型考察分地区产业结构扭曲对能源强度的影响。结果表明,改革开放以来,中国分地区产业结构扭曲指数总体上显著下降,东部地区产业结构扭曲指数最低,中部地区次低,西部地区最高。空间杜宾模型的估计结果表明,中国能源强度在地区间存在明显的依赖性。产业结构扭曲虽然对能源强度没有显著的直接效应,但却存在显著的间接效应。从总效应看,产业结构扭曲是抑制能源强度下降的一个重要因素。提高能源价格、提升对外贸易水平、优化外商直接投资有助于驱动能源强度下降,R&D支出对抑制能源强度没有明显的积极影响。为了降低能源强度,中国应该致力于消除产业结构扭曲的微观根源,促进农业劳动力转移,建立市场化的能源价格形成机制,提高R&D支出的利用效率。
Reducing energy intensity is a crucial way to achieve the goal of carbon neutrality.There are obvious distortions in the change of China’s industrial structure,which will inevitably have an adverse impact on the efficiency of resource allocation,and may hinder the decline in energy intensity.In the context of coping with climate change,it is urgent to clarify the impact of the continuous distortion of the industrial structure on energy intensity change.To explore the influence mechanism between the two,this paper measured the index of China’s provincial industrial structure distortion by using a panel dataset on the employment and output shares of three industries from 1978 to 2016,and adopted the spatial panel model to examine the impact of industrial structure distortion on energy intensity.The marginal contributions of this paper focus on three aspects.Firstly,we empirically investigated the impact of technological progress on industrial structure change,and we proved that even with exogenous technological progress,the output and employment shares of any sector were still equal at the equilibrium level under the conditions of free entry and exit.Secondly,we re-examined the decline path of energy intensity from a new perspective and demonstrated that industrial structure distortion was an essential factor in suppressing the decline in regional energy intensity.Thirdly,we proposed targeted policy recommendations to eliminate industrial structure distortions and reduce energy intensity.Four major conclusions are obtained based on the two-stage analysis.Firstly,since the reform and opening up,the index of China’s industrial structure distortion has declined significantly.There are obvious inter-provincial differences,that is,the western region has the highest index,followed by the central region and the eastern region successively.Secondly,the results of the spatial Durbin model indicate that energy intensity has obvious spatial dependence.Although industrial structure distortion has no significant direct effect on energy intensity,it has a significant negative impact on energy intensity reduction through indirect effect.Thirdly,energy price is a non-negligible factor driving the decline in energy intensity,which proves the practical significance of"making the energy price right".Fourthly,improving the level of foreign trade contributes to the decrease in energy intensity.The introduction of foreign direct investment worsens energy intensity,while R&D investment has no significant impact on energy intensity.The micro-roots of industrial structure distortion are the imperfection of the market and the policy bias of the government.Based on empirical conclusions,we proposed some targeted policy recommendations from the perspectives of effectively mitigating the industrial structure distortion and steadily reducing energy intensity.(1)The Chinese government should carry out institutional reforms in some areas such as household registration,compulsory education,employment,pension and medical care to meet the requirements of the new urbanization,and accelerate the continued transfer of agricultural labor to industrial and urban sectors.(2)It should focus on the western region from the perspective of optimizing the industrial structure,gradually increase the proportion of high-tech industries and service industries in the national economy,and alleviate the inhibitory effect of industrial structure distortion on the decline in energy intensity.(3)It should consummate energy price formation mechanisms that reflect market supply and demand,environmental costs,and resource scarcity as soon as possible,so as to give play to the decisive role of price mechanism in resource allocation.(4)It should also improve the allocation mechanism of public R&D expenditure and the activity efficiency of R&D department.In a word,to reduce energy intensity,China should work to eliminate the micro-roots of industrial structure distortion,establish a market-based energy price formation mechanism,and improve the efficiency of R&D expenditure.
作者
沈小波
陈语
林伯强
SHEN Xiaobo;CHEN Yu;LIN Boqiang(School of Economics,China Center for Energy Economics Research,Xiamen University;School of Management,China Institute for Studies in Energy Policy,Xiamen University)
出处
《经济研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2021年第2期157-173,共17页
Economic Research Journal
基金
厦门大学清洁低碳可持续的能源体系政策与机制研究(项目批准号:20720191067)资助
关键词
技术进步
产业结构
结构扭曲
能源强度
Technological Progress
Industrial Structure
Structural Distortion
Energy Intensity
作者简介
沈小波,厦门大学经济学院、中国能源经济研究中心,邮政编码:361005,电子信箱:xbshen@xmu.edu.cn;陈语,厦门大学管理学院,中国能源政策研究院,邮政编码:361005,电子信箱:441337598@qq.com;通讯作者:林伯强,电子信箱:bqlin@xmu.edu.cn。
