摘要
为了探索世界能源发展对中国实现能源转型的影响,采用情景分析法,改进了评估全球气候变化的全球变化评估模型(GCAM),设计了基准、深度博弈和全面合作3种情景,定量模拟了2020—2060年世界与中国能源发展趋势,展望了中国现代油气产业转型的方向和能源转型的路径。研究结果表明:①世界能源需求将持续增长,2060年一次能源需求量达(262~294)×10^(8)t标准煤,较2020年增长37%~54%;②博弈情景下油气寿命期延长,全球石油需求量达峰时间较基准情景推迟5年至2035年,峰值达48.5×10^(8)t;③中国能源结构将发生根本性转变,非化石能源占比从2020年15.9%升至2060年78%;④现代油气产业向高效、清洁新能源等综合能源方向转型,将成为低成本实现“双碳”目标的重要途径,2060年中国油气需求量占比仍接近15%。结论认为,全球范围开放合作才能避免严重气候危机;发展现代油气产业是降低能源转型成本的关键举措;中长期内,油气在全球和中国能源结构中仍将保持主体地位,而维持上游投资对于保障能源转型期的能源安全不可或缺。
To explore the impact of global energy development on achievement of energy transition in China,this study adopts the scenario analysis method,improves the Global Change Assessment Model for assessing climate change,designs three scenarios—the baseline scenario,deep game scenario,and comprehensive cooperation scenario—and simulates the energy development trends of the world and China from 2020 to 2060,and prospects of modern oil and gas industry and energy transition in China.The results show that:Global energy demand will continue to grow,with primary energy demand reaching(26.2−29.4)billion tons of standard coal by 2060,an increase of 37%−54%compared with 2020.Under the game scenario,the lifespan of oil and gas will be extended;the peak time of global oil demand will be delayed by 5 years compared with the baseline scenario,arriving in 2035,with the peak value reaching 4.85 billion tons.Chinas energy structure will undergo a fundamental transition,with the proportion of non-fossil energy rising from 15.9%in 2020 to 78%in 2060.The transition of the modern oil and gas industry toward integrated energy such as high-efficiency and clean new energy will become an important way to achieve the dual-carbon goals at low cost,and the share of Chinas oil and gas demand will still be close to 15%by 2060.The conclusions hold that global open cooperation is essential to avoid severe climate crises;developing the modern oil and gas industry is a key measure to reduce the cost of energy transition;in the medium and long term,oil and gas will remain a dominant part of both the global and Chinas energy structures,and maintaining upstream investment is indispensable for ensuring energy security during the energy transition period.
作者
向征艰
李然
左艺
汪辉
陆亚晨
XIANG Zhengjian;LI Ran;ZUO Yi;WANG Hui;LU Yachen(CNPC PetroChina Economics and Technology Research Institute,Beijing 100724;Key Laboratory of Oil and Gas Market Simulation and Price Forecasting,Beijing 100724)
出处
《世界石油工业》
2025年第4期1-11,共11页
World Petroleum Industry
基金
中国石油天然气集团有限公司发展计划部研究项目“世界与中国能源展望研究(2024)”(ZL2024005)
中国石油集团经济技术研究院研究项目“能源展望与能源安全研究”(2024C01138)。
关键词
能源转型
基准情景
深度博弈情景
全面合作情景
现代油气产业
能源安全
energy transition
baseline scenario
deep game scenario
comprehensive cooperation scenario
contemporary oil and gas industry
energy security
作者简介
第一作者:向征艰(1984—),男,高级工程师,硕士,从事石油市场、能源战略、能源转型与展望相关研究工作。E-mail:xiangzhengjian@cnpc.com.cn
