摘要
工商业用户现有负荷水平是分布式新能源系统建设可行性最重要的依据。很多工商业用户并未建立完善的电力自动化系统对负荷进行实时记录,因此需对负荷水平进行预测。根据工商业用户历史电费账单中尖峰平谷电度分布及其工作制预测各时段负荷水平,获得近似负荷曲线,再通过多维方程组对负荷曲线进行平滑处理,模拟实际负荷的变化情况,使得负荷曲线更接近实际负荷。经过工程实例计算及验证,该方法预测的负荷曲线可满足分布式新能源系统建设前期可行性分析的需求。
The existing load level of industrial and commercial users is the most important basis for the feasibility study of the construction of distributed new energy systems.Many industrial and commercial users have not established a complete power automation system to record the load in real time.Therefore,it is necessary to forecast the load level.According to the distribution of peak,off-peak,valley and flat loads in historical electricity bills and the working system of industrial and commercial users,the load level in each period is preliminarily predicted to obtain an approximate load curve.Then,a multi-dimensional equation system is used to smooth the load curve to simulate the actual load changes,making the load curve closer to the actual load.Through the calculation and verification of engineering examples,the load curve predicted by the method can meet the requirements of the feasibility analysis in the early stage of the construction of distributed new energy systems.
作者
张浩
ZHANG Hao(Shanghai Municipal Engineering Design General Institute,Shanghai 200092,China)
出处
《现代建筑电气》
2025年第7期19-23,共5页
Modern Architecture Electric
关键词
负荷预测
分布式新能源系统
电费账单
尖峰平谷电度
load forecasting
distributed new energy system
electricity bills
peak,off-peak,vally and flat loads
作者简介
张浩(1981-),男,正高级工程师,从事市政电气及自控工程设计工作。
