摘要
2022年,在国内新冠肺炎疫情多点频发,经济发展面临需求收缩、供给冲击、预期转弱三重压力,地缘冲突引发的全球性油气价格飞涨的形势下,中国天然气发展有进有退、供需平稳、韧性十足,主要表现为:①天然气勘探再获重大成果,探明储量保持高峰增长;②天然气生产保持箭头向上,但增产量和增幅继续回落;③天然气进口价涨量跌,LNG进口量首次负增长:④天然气需求乏力,消费量下降;⑤天然气基础设施建设三箭齐发,快速推进;⑥天然气市场化发展持续深入。结论认为:2023年,在新冠肺炎疫情防控策略改变后,中国社会经济发展动能增强,中国天然气将迎来一个稳中有进的发展之年,预计页岩气将引领天然气探明地质储量再次突破万亿立方米;天然气生产稳步前行,增产量保持在约100×10^(8) m^(3);LNG进口量重拾升势,联手俄气带动天然气进口量反弹;天然气需求强势回升,市场供需平稳;天然气体制机制改革有新进展。
Although in 2022,frequent COVID-19 outbreak appeared across China,economic development faced triple pressure of pullback in demand,vulnerable supply and weaker expectation,and global oil and gas prices were on the rise due to geopolitical conflicts,China’s natural gas development rolled back and forth but held stable supply and demand as well as lot of resilience.Moreover,it presents the following characters.First,major achievements were remade in gas exploration,and proved reserves kept growing at the peak rate.Second,gas production still increased like an upward arrow,but with continuous decline in growing output and rate.Third,the import price of natural gas rose whereas the imports fell;and the imports of LNG emerged as a negative growth for the first time.Fourth,its consumption dropped due to feeble demand.Fifth,the infrastructure construction of natural gas advanced energetically.Sixth,its marketization went ahead.In conclusion,in 2023,both social and economic development momentum will be enhanced in China,and natural gas development will welcome a stable and progressive year after variations of COVID-19 control and prevention strategy.It is expected that,with shale gas as the leading gas,the natural gas will exceed one trillion cubic meters of proved reserves again.Its production should move forward steadily with the output staying an increase around 10 billion cubic meters.LNG imports will continue their up trend,and those of natural gas will rebound by cooperating with Gazprom.The demand of natural gas will pick up strongly and the supply-demand market will be steady.And some latest progress will be made in system and mechanism reforms on natural gas.
作者
高芸
王怡平
胡迤丹
王蓓
高钰杰
宋维东
GAO Yun;WANG Yiping;HU Yidan;WANG Bei;GAO Yujie;SONG Weidong(Natural Gas Economic Research Institute,PetroChina Southwest Oil&Gasfield Company,Chengdu,Sichuan 610051,China;Yun-nan PetroChina Kunlun Gas Co.,Ltd,Kunming,Yunnan 650200,China;Hotel Management Company,CNPC Chuanqing Drilling Engineering Company Limited,Chengdu,Sichuan 610051,China;Chengdu Center,CNPC Global Business Operation Company Limited,Chengdu,Sichuan 610000,China;Sichuan Changning Gas Development Co.,Ltd.,Chengdu,Sichuan 610056,China)
出处
《天然气技术与经济》
2023年第1期1-10,共10页
Natural Gas Technology and Economy
基金
中国石油西南油气田公司科学研究与技术开发项目“川渝页岩气企地共建共享机制与实施路径”(编号:20220310-03)。
关键词
天然气
天然气市场
体制改革
价格
述评
展望
Natural gas
Natural gas market
System reform
Price
Review
Outlook
作者简介
高芸(1987-),女,经济师,硕士,从事天然气市场与营销相关研究工作。E-mail:koge1987@qq.com。
