“一带一路”倡议促进了中国城市产业升级吗?——基于空间双重差分模型的实证分析

Has the One Belt One Road Initiative Promoted the Industrial Upgrading of Chinese Cities?An Empirical Analysis Based on a Spatial Difference-in-Difference Model

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摘要 2023年是“一带一路”倡议提出十周年,倡议的实施为应对中国产业的技术升级转型、创新能力提升等提供了重要思路与策略。基于2008—2022年中国278个地级市数据,构建空间双重差分模型探究“一带一路”倡议对产业结构升级的作用效果。研究结果表明:第一,空间视角下,“一带一路”倡议具有显著的虹吸效应,可以促进沿线地区产业结构高级化、合理化发展,但对邻近地区有抑制作用。第二,异质性分析显示,“一带一路”倡议的产业效应在“一带”与“一路”沿线城市、城市产业类型、城市发展类型方面存在差异性。第三,在作用机制方面,“一带一路”倡议通过开放发展效应和人力资本效应显著推动沿线地区产业结构升级。同时,“一带一路”倡议具有人力资本层面的虹吸效应和开放发展层面的溢出效应,并且人力资本的虹吸效应明显强于开放发展的溢出效应。 Important ideas and strategies for coping with technological transformations in China's industries and improved innovation capabilities have been shared since the 10th anniversary of the One Belt One Road Initiative in 2023.Using data from 278 prefecture-level cities in China from 2008 to 2022,this paper constructs a difference-in-space model to explore the initiative s effect on industrial structure upgrading.The results support three main conclusions.First,the initiative promotes industrial structure upgrading and rationalization in the regions along the route but inhibits them in neighboring regions.Second,the belt and the road portions of the initiative affect different urban industries and generate different forms of urban development.Third,the initiative has significantly promoted upgrades to the industrial structure of the regions along the route by siphoning human capital to those regions and having a spillover effect on open development.The siphon effect on human capital is significantly stronger than the spillover effect on open development.

作者潘海岚闫伟男刘贤铤 PAN Hailan;YAN Weinan;LIU Xianting(School of Economics,Yunnan Minzu University,Kunming 650500,China)

机构地区云南民族大学经济与管理学院

出处《南京财经大学学报》 2025年第2期22-32,共11页 Journal of Nanjing University of Finance and Economics

基金云南省哲学社会科学创新团队项目“云南口岸建设发展研究”(2023CX05) 云南省教育厅科学研究基金项目“‘一带一路’倡议对云南产业升级的作用机制与影响效应研究”(2024Y446)。

关键词一带一路双重差分产业结构升级空间溢出 One Belt One Road double differential industrial upgrading space overflow

分类号 F264 [经济管理—国民经济]

作者简介潘海岚(1970-),女,广西贵港人,云南民族大学经济与管理学院教授、硕士研究生导师,研究方向为产业经济、宏观经济;通讯作者:闫伟男(1999-),男,山西晋城人,云南民族大学经济与管理学院硕士研究生,研究方向为产业结构与产业政策;刘贤铤(1999-),男,广东高州人,云南民族大学经济与管理学院硕士研究生,研究方向为产业经济。