摘要
本文基于人口普查数据分析2000—2020年中国山区县人口收缩的时空格局,借鉴“3D(密度、距离、分割)”框架设计解释变量,运用Heckman两阶段模型识别人口收缩的影响因素,并采用地理探测器识别主控因素的交互作用,进而在“四层一体”框架下解析山区人口收缩空间格局的形成机制。研究发现:(1) 2000—2020年山区县人口占全国总人口比例持续降低,收缩型山区县数量不断增多,山区人口收缩程度加重并存在自我强化特征。(2)人口密度等级降低的山区县不断增加,人口密度为(100~200)人/km2的过渡区是人口变化最活跃区域,过渡区向稀疏区、集聚区向过渡区转型是山区县人口变化的主要方向,仅少数山区县由过渡区转为集聚区;位于省际和市际边缘区的山区县人口变化剧烈且以收缩为主要特征。(3)山区人口收缩区范围持续扩大且集中分布,形成内蒙古中东部-东北、武陵山、秦巴山区、大别山、太行山、云南中部、山东丘陵及福建丘陵共八大片区,其中内蒙古中东部-东北片区、武陵山片区主要表现为重度和中度收缩,其余片区以轻度收缩为主。(4)人口收缩存在等时圈指向,倾向于发生在地级市2h、省会城市4h等时圈范围内,随时间距离增加该指向先增强后减弱。(5)高就业密度抑制山区县发生人口收缩;距地级市、省会城市较远的山区县更易发生人口收缩;文化分割、制度分割分别对人口收缩具有抑制和促进作用;前述因素在自然、生计、制度和意识形态层发挥作用并交互影响共同塑造中国山区人口收缩的空间格局。
This study examines the spatial distribution of depopulation at the county level in the mountainous areas of China from 2000 to 2020,using census data and employing the Heckman two-stage model to uncover determinants within the framework of 3D(Density,Distance,Division).Subsequently,geographical detector is used to discern interaction effects of determinants on depopulation in the mountainous areas.Based on these findings,we adopt a"four-layer integration"framework proposed by Professor Zhou Shangyi to investigate the formation mechanism of spatial depopulation patterns in the mountainous areas of China.The results are as follows:(1)From 2000 to 2020,the proportion of population in the mountainous areas of China continuously declined.This decline was accompanied by an increase in the number of mountainous counties experiencing depopulation and a worsening severity of depopulation with self-reinforcing characteristics.(2)The number of mountainous counties with declining population density continued to increase,with the transitional area(population density ranging from 100-200 people/km2)being the most dynamic region for population changes.Population primarily shifted from the transitional area to sparsely populated regions,while some transitions occurred from agglomeration areas to the transitional area.Only a few mountainous counties experienced transitions from the transitional area to agglomeration areas.Mountainous counties adjacent to provincial and prefectural administrative boundaries show significant population fluctuations and declining trends.(3)The depopulation in counties is spreading and concentrated in eight major regions:east-central Inner Mongolia&Northeast China,Wuling Mountains,Qinling-Daba Mountains,Dabie Mountains,Taihang Mountains,central Yunnan,hilly areas of Shandong,and hilly areas of Fujian.Severe and moderate decline is mainly observed in east-central Inner Mongolia&Northeast China and Wuling Mountains while the remaining areas show a mild decline.(4)The depopulation follows an isochronal pattern,occurring within a 2-hour radius of prefecture-level cities and a 4-hour radius of provincial capital cities.This pattern initially strengthens but weakens with increasing distance.(5)The negative correlation between employment density and depopulation in the mountainous counties is evident.Depopulation tends to be more prevalent in the mountainous counties located farther away from prefecture-level cities and provincial capitals.Cultural division can hinder depopulation,while institutional division has the opposite effect.These aforementioned factors collectively shape the dynamics of depopulation in the mountainous areas through their distinct and interactive impacts.
作者
侯晓静
喻忠磊
李雨婷
袁留阳
孙畅
HOU Xiaojing;YU Zhonglei;LI Yuting;YUAN Liuyang;SUN Chang(Key Research Institute of Yellow River Civilization and Sustainable Development,Collaborative Innovation Center on Yellow River Civilization Jointly Built by Henan Province and Ministry of Education,Henan University,Zhengzhou 450046,China)
出处
《地理研究》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2024年第5期1205-1224,共20页
Geographical Research
基金
国家自然科学基金(41901206、42371266)。
作者简介
侯晓静(1999-),女,河南三门峡人,硕士研究生,研究方向为人口地理,旅游乡村社会-生态系统演化。E-mail:Houxj@henu.edu.cn;通信作者:喻忠磊(1987-),男,河南信阳人,博士,副教授,硕士生导师,主要研究方向为人口地理与城乡发展、乡村地理与社会-生态系统演化。E-mail:yzlei@mail.bnu.edu.cn。
