摘要
目前,积极应对人口老龄化已成为国家战略。中国正处在"健康中国"战略实施给预期寿命带来变化、"全面两孩"政策推行后生育水平发生波动等新时代人口发展新环境下,基于2015年全国1%人口抽样调查数据,依托队列要素方法,对21世纪中国人口老龄化关键演进期的老年人口总体规模、所占比例及性别分布、年龄结构等进行长期趋势预测的结果表明:中国老年人口规模及比例将在21世纪中叶前不断增长,在21世纪中叶后达到峰值水平,随后规模转向负增长,比例则趋于基本稳定;中国人口老龄化以快慢速相间的分阶段、波浪式特征演进,基本实现现代化的2035年和建成现代化强国的2050年都将是人口老龄化的关键节点,届时老年人口的总体规模、所占比例及性别分布、年龄结构等将出现数量级的标志性变动,尤其值得关注。
Responding proactively to population aging has become China’s national strategy.Using data from the 1% population sampling survey conducted in 2015,this paper employs the cohortcomponent method to simulate the long-term trends of size,proportion,gender structure and age composition of elderly population in the years 2015—2065,a critical period of China’s population aging,taking the influence of the Healthy China initiative on life expectation and the impact of the universal two-child policy on fertility level into consideration.The results show that the size and proportion of China’s elderly population will grow before the middle of the 21 st century and then peak after the middle of the 21 st century,with the size gradually shrinking and the proportion relatively stabilizing;China’s population aging process in a wave-like manner can be divided into several speedup and slowdown stages;2035,the year to basically realize modernization,and 2050,the year to build a great modern country,will both be the key points of China’s population aging,with the significant changes of size,proportion,gender structure and age composition of elderly population,which is particularly worthy of attention.
作者
杜鹏
李龙
DU Peng;LI Long(Center for Population and Development Studies&Institute of Gerontology,Renmin University of China,Beijing 100872)
出处
《中国人民大学学报》
CSSCI
北大核心
2021年第1期96-109,共14页
Journal of Renmin University of China
基金
中国人民大学科学研究基金重大项目“健康老龄化视域下的中国老年照护体系研究”(17XNLG08)
关键词
人口老龄化
长期趋势预测
波浪式
队列要素方法
Population aging
Long-term trends projection
Wave-like manner
Cohort-Component method
作者简介
杜鹏,中国人民大学人口与发展研究中心、老年学研究所教授,博士生导师;通讯作者:李龙,中国人民大学人口与发展研究中心、老年学研究所讲师(北京100872)
