摘要
突发事件应急决策范式经历了从被动应急响应到主动预防准备,再到失效溯源防范的逐步升级。突发事件应急决策失效受到多重并发因素的共同影响,从情报视域下挖掘决策失效的影响因素,不仅有利于从理论上系统把握应急情报与决策的复杂关系,更有利于理解决策主体的思维方式和行动决策,对提升应急决策效率具有实践指导价值。本文基于Simon管理决策三阶段模型,运用QCA(qualitative comparative analysis)方法从情报搜集、决策设计、方案选择方面提炼出7个解释变量,对我国44起突发事件案例进行组态分析,深入探索导致应急决策失效的路径。研究发现,从单一条件变量分析,情报整合不完备、跨部门协同辅助决策不足是导致政府应急决策失效的充分非必要条件;从条件组态分析,政府应急决策失效的路径主要可以分为决策偏差过失、决策迟滞规避及决策效用失调3种模式。最后,从构建三元空间耦合的应急情报感知机制、技术赋能的线下线上双路径触发机制、多方协同的辅助决策机制、多元能力提升的考核问责机制4个方面提出防范应急决策失效对策,以期为政府破解应急决策失效困境、提升决策效率提供参考,对揭示应急决策失效差异化路径具有重要的理论与实践意义。
The paradigm of emergency decision making has been upgraded from passive emergency response to active preventive preparation,which focuses on failure traceability and prevention now.Emergency decision-making failure is influenced by multiple concurrent factors.Mining the influencing factors of such failure from the perspective of intelligence is conducive not only to grasping the complex relationship between emergency intelligence and decision in theory,but also to understanding the decision-making subjects’thinking and behavior,which has practical guiding value for improving the efficiency of emergency decisions.Based on Simon’s three-stage model of management decision making,this study adopts the qualitative comparative analysis(QCA)method to extract seven explanatory variables from aspects of intelligence collection,decision design,and program selection.This study analyzes the configuration of 44 emergency cases in China,and further explores the failure path leading to the emergency decision.The results indicate the following.From the single conditional variable analysis,government emergency decision-making failure is significantly affected by incomplete intelli gence integration and insufficient cross-department coordination.From the analysis of conditional configuration,the path of government emergency decision failure can be divided into three modes:decision deviation and fault,lag avoidance,and utility failure.This study presents countermeasures to prevent the failure of emergency decision making from constructing the emergency intelligence perception mechanism of three-dimensional space,online and offline dual path triggering mechanism of technology enablement,auxiliary decision-making mechanism of multi-party cooperation,and assessment and accountability mechanism of multi-ability improvement.Furthermore,it provides a reference for the government to solve the dilemma of the failure of emergency decision making and improves the efficiency of decision making,which has important theoretical and practical significance in revealing the differentiated path of the failure of such decision making.
作者
孙钦莹
马海群
Sun Qinying;Ma Haiqun(Postdoctoral Research Station of Chinese Language and Literature,Heilongjiang University,Harbin 150080;Research Center of Information Resources Management,Heilongjiang University,Harbin 150080)
出处
《情报学报》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2023年第9期1078-1091,共14页
Journal of the China Society for Scientific and Technical Information
基金
国家社会科学基金一般项目“基于事理图谱的应急情报感知推理与智慧决策研究”(22BTQ049)。
关键词
突发事件
应急情报
决策失效
组态分析
emergency
emergency intelligence
decision failure
configuration analysis
作者简介
孙钦莹,女,1985年生,博士,讲师,硕士生导师,主要研究领域为危机信息管理、应急情报;通信作者:马海群,男,1964年生,博士,教授,博士生导师,主要研究领域为信息政策与法律、国家情报制度,E-mail:mahaiqun@163.com。
