摘要
基于2000年、2010年和2020年三次全国人口普查数据,以中国12个主要城市群为研究对象,从变化趋势、空间关联、空间差异和影响因素等方面,对市域尺度下我国城市群人口老龄化的时空演变与驱动因素进行了分析。研究结果显示:2000—2020年间,我国城市群所辖城市的人口老龄化整体呈加速加深的态势,但不同城市群的加深速度存在较大差异;城市群所辖城市的人口老龄化主要展现为相似类型集聚的空间分布格局,但正向空间自相关性在考察期内发生了一定的跃迁;城市群人口老龄化的整体差异在考察期内有所扩大,人口老龄化的整体差异及其变化主要源于群际差异的贡献;无论是城市群整体还是大部分城市群内部,老龄化惯性和人口流迁均是人口老龄化空间分异的重要致因,但与2010年相比,2020年时与生育率相关的人口自然增长、生育潜力等因素,以及可能引致人口流迁的产业结构、环境污染和气温等因素对城市群整体人口老龄化空间分异的影响开始显现或有所强化。
Using the national population census data of 2000,2010 and 2020,and taking 12 major urban agglomerations in China as the research objects,this paper explores the spatio-temporal evolution and its driving factors of the population aging in urban agglomerations of China at the municipal scale from the aspects of changing trends,spatial correlations,spatial differences and influencing factors.The results show that the population aging in the cities under the jurisdiction of these urban agglomerations in China has been accelerating as a whole from 2000 to 2020,but the quickened steps of the population aging in different urban agglomerations are quite different.The population aging in the cities under the jurisdiction of these urban agglomerations mainly exhibits a spatial distribution pattern of similar types of agglomeration,but its positive spatial correlation has undergone a certain transition during the investigation period.The overall difference of the population aging in these urban agglomerations has expanded during this period,and the whole difference and change of the population aging are mainly related to the contribution of the differences among these urban agglomerations.Either taking the urban agglomeration as a whole or the interior of most urban agglomerations into consideration,the aging inertia and population migration are the major causes of the spatial differentiation of the population aging in these urban agglomerations.However,compared with 2010,the impact on the spatial differentiation of the overall population aging of these urban agglomerations resulting from such factors as the natural population growth and fertility potential related to the fertility rate as well as the industrial structure,environmental pollution and temperature that may lead to population migration began to appear or had been strengthened in 2020.
作者
郭郡郡
GUO Junjun(Institute of Public Policy,China West Normal University,Nanchong 637009,China)
出处
《云南民族大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》
CSSCI
北大核心
2023年第4期84-94,共11页
Journal of Yunnan Minzu University(Philosophy and Social Sciences Edition)
基金
国家社会科学基金重点项目“‘历史交汇期’有效缩小民族地区多维发展差距的理论与对策研究”(18AMZ001)
西华师范大学科研创新团队项目(CXTD2020-10)阶段成果。
关键词
城市群
人口老龄化
时空演变
人口普查
urban agglomerations
population aging
spatio-temporal evolution
population census
作者简介
郭郡郡,西华师范大学公共政策研究院研究员,博士。
