摘要
[目的]探析江苏省生态系统服务的供需格局变化特征及其综合影响因素,为区域内生态保护政策的制定和可持续管理提供科学依据和理论支撑。[方法]基于2005—2020年四期土地利用数据,探究江苏省生态系统服务供给、需求及供需匹配比及其时空演变规律,利用地理探测器从自然和社会经济因素方面探究江苏省生态系统服务供需关系的关键影响因素,并进一步利用地理回归模型(GWR)揭示影响因子对供需作用关系的时空分异特征。[结果]江苏省生态系统服务供需匹配分布整体呈现江苏中部地区高,南北低的特征,具有一定的不均衡性;生态系统服务供需匹配关系高—高集聚区在空间上分布于苏中地区,且随着时间数量呈减少趋势;低—低集聚区分布于苏南发达县/区,且数量呈增加趋势;基于GWR分析表明,人口密度、人类影响指数、城镇化率和经济密度四项影响因素对区域内生态系统服务供需变化均有显著的负向抑制作用,年均气温呈现两极化趋势,且均有明显的空间异质性。[结论]江苏省生态系统服务供需格局在空间上差异显著,研究期内生态系统服务供需失衡压力逐渐增大,研究区内生态系统服务供需关系的核心影响因素为人口密度、人类影响指数、城镇化率和经济密度。
[Objective]The aim of this study is to explore the change characteristics of supply and demand pattern of ecosystem services and its comprehensive influencing factors in Jiangsu Province,which can provide scientific basis and theoretical support for the formulation and sustainable management of ecological protection policies in this region.[Methods]Based on the land use data of the four periods from 2005 to 2020,the supply,demand and their matching ratio in Jiangsu Province was explored,and the key factors influencing the supply and demand of ecosystem services in Jiangsu Province were explored from the aspects of natural and socio-economic factors by using geographic probe.Furthermore,geographical regression model(GWR)was used to reveal the spatiotemporal differentiation of the relationship between supply and demand.[Results]That the matching ratio of ecosystem services supply-demand was higher in central Jiangsu Province and lower in northern and southern Jiangsu Province.The high-high clusters of the matching ratio of supply-demand distributed in central Jiangsu Province,and the number decreased over time.Low-low clusters were located in developed counties/districts in southern Jiangsu.The GWR analysis indicated that their effects on supply-demand relationship varied spatiotemporally.Population density,human impact index,urbanization rate and economic density had significant negative effect.While average annual temperature had both positive and negative effects on supply-demand relationship.[Conclusion]The spatial difference of ecosystem service supply and demand pattern in Jiangsu Province was significant,and the imbalance pressure of ecosystem service supply and demand increased gradually during the study period.The core influencing factors of ecosystem service supply and demand relationship in the study area were population density,human impact index,urbanization rate and economic density.
作者
高明惠
李成
赵虎
GAO Minghui;LI Cheng;ZHAO Hu(School of Architecture and Design,China University of Mining and Technology,Xuzhou,Jiangsu 221000,China)
出处
《水土保持研究》
CSCD
北大核心
2023年第5期315-324,共10页
Research of Soil and Water Conservation
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(42001241)
江苏省社会科学资助项目(20SHD010)
江苏高校哲学社会科学研究项目课题(2020SJA1006)。
关键词
生态系统服务供需
空间自相关
地理探测器
地理加权回归
江苏省
ecosystem services supply and demand
spatial autocorrelation
geographic detector
geographically weighted regression
Jiangsu Province
作者简介
第一作者:高明惠(1998-),女,河北沧州人,硕士研究生,主要从事区域发展与国土空间开发保护研究。E-mail:gaominghui2021@foxmail.com;通信作者:李成(1985-),男,安徽省淮南人,博士,副教授,主要从事区域发展与国土空间开发保护研究。E-mail:cheng.li@cumt.edu.cn。
