摘要
2022年是中国经济面对“三重压力”、抵御超预期冲击的一年。一方面,国内超大规模市场、完整的产业链、新能源相关产业持续向好以及贸易顺差保持高位,为宏观经济企稳提供持续动力;另一方面,新冠肺炎疫情反复大范围暴发、俄乌冲突扰动世界能源市场、高温干旱、房地产市场深度调整、消费不足、信心减弱使得经济只实现了弱企稳,负向产出缺口持续,经济复苏进程较为缓慢。2023年是党的二十大后红利窗口期,“十四五”规划承前启后期,同时也是国际、国内发展动力结构性加速调整期,新发展格局进入加速落地期。一方面,“三重压力”,尤其是需求收缩问题在2023年将有所延续;另一方面,在疫情因素减弱、消费活力逐步恢复和系统性政策布局推动高质量发展的作用下,宏观经济将得以全面修复,实现整体向好。但需要注意的是,如何进一步稳定消费并构建与新发展格局激励相容的宏观经济治理体系仍面临许多挑战。
2022 is a year when the Chinese economy faced“triple pressures"and resisted unexpected shocks.On the one hand,the domestic ultra-large-scale market,complete industrial chain,new energyrelated industries continued to improve,and the trade surplus remained high,providing continuous impetus for the stabilization of the macro economy.On the other hand,the COVID-19 repeatedly breaking out on a large scale,the Russia-Ukraine conflict disturbing the world energy market,high temperature and drought,deep adjustment of the real estate market,insufficient consumption,and weakened confidence have made the economy only weakly stabilized.The negative output gap continued,and the economic recovery process was relatively slow.2023 is the dividend window period after the"20th National Congress",the period that the"14th Five-year Plan"inherits the past and ushers in the later period,and is also a period of accelerated structural adjustment of international and domestic development drivers,and the new development pattern enters a period of accelerated implementation.On the one hand,the"triple pressures",especially the problem of shrinking demand,will continue in 2023.On the other hand,with the weakening of the epidemic factors,the gradual recovery of consumption vitality,and the promotion of highquality development by the systematic policy layout,the macroeconomy will be fully restored and the overall improvement will be achieved.However,it should be noted that there are still many challenges in how to further stabilize consumption and build a macroeconomic governance system that is compatible with the incentives of the new development pattern.
出处
《经济理论与经济管理》
CSSCI
北大核心
2023年第4期13-35,共23页
Economic Theory and Business Management
基金
北京市习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想研究中心项目“新时代防范和化解杠杆风险研究”(19LLLJA001)的阶段性成果。
关键词
中国宏观经济
经济复苏
疫情
结构性调整
增长预测
党的二十大
China's macroeconomy
economic recovery
COVID-19
structural adjustment
growth forecast
the 20th National Congress of CPC
作者简介
报告为中国人民大学中国宏观经济分析与预测课题组集体讨论研究成果,执笔人为:于泽、刘元春、刘晓光、闫衍。
