摘要
随着我国地方政府债务管理改革不断推进,以地方政府债券为主要形式的显性债务有序增长,隐性债务增速逐步放缓,地方债务风险总体可控但结构性和区域性风险仍较突出。从当前来看,在央地财权事权不匹配、纵向财政失衡的背景下,地方政府在“债务—投资”模式驱动下大规模举债支撑地方经济建设及社会发展,虽然在短期内缓解了地方财政压力,但由于债务支出结构与效率、期限结构与现金流存在一定的错配,中长期风险不断累积,对未来财政及债务的可持续性提出了较大挑战。基于此,本文认为地方政府债务风险化解需把控好短期风险控制与中长期体制改革的关系。从短期看,地方政府“开前门、堵后门”的管理仍需坚定不移地推进;从中长期看,仍需从根本上推进财税体制改革,并通过深层次机制改革完善债务管理长效机制。
With the continuous reform of local government debt management,the dominant debt in the main form of local government bonds has grown in an orderly manner,while the growth rate of hidden debt has slowed down gradually.Local debt risks are generally controllable,but structural and regional risks are still prominent.At present,under the background of mismatching of central and local financial power,local governments borrow on a large scale to support local economic construction and social development under the“debt-investment”mode.Although the local financial pressure has been alleviated in the short term,due to a certain mismatch between the structure and efficiency of debt expenditure,term structure and cash flow,medium and long term risks have been accumulating,and future fiscal and debt sustainability faces major challenges.Based on this,this paper believes that the local government debt risk mitigation needs to control the relationship between short-term risk control and medium-and long-term institutional reform.In the short term,the management of“opening the front door and blocking the back door”by local governments still needs to be firmly promoted;In the medium to long term,we still need to fundamentally advance the reform of the fiscal and taxation systems,and improve the long-term mechanism for debt management through deep institutional reform.
作者
袁海霞
汪苑晖
鲁璐
Yuan Haixia;Wang Yuanhui;Lu Lu
出处
《开发性金融研究》
2023年第2期35-45,共11页
Development Finance Research
关键词
地方政府债务
风险防范
财政体制改革
Local Government Debt
Risk Prevention
Reform of the Fiscal System
作者简介
袁海霞,中诚信国际研究院副院长,财政部政府债务咨询专家,高级经济师、经济学博士;汪苑晖,中诚信国际研究院副总监,金融工程学硕士;鲁璐,中诚信国际研究院研究员,经济学硕士。
