摘要
本文基于第五次至第七次人口普查数据公报,综合运用空间分析、回归分析等方法,深度探索中国地级以上城市人口收缩的时空动态特征及其动因,以期为将来国家发展政策制定、新型城镇化建设和人口均衡分布提供参考依据。研究发现:(1)中国城市人口收缩形势越来越严峻,呈现出人口收缩范围日益增大,人口增长范围日益缩小、逐渐集中的两极分化特征;(2)中国北部和西部地区人口集聚明显弱于中国东南部,城市人口密度重心从孝感市逐渐南移至武汉市中部,人口收缩重心由湖北襄阳市北移到了河北邢台市,且沿“胡焕庸线”两侧形成了带状收缩结构。(3)形成了带状为主、点状为辅、面状固定的收缩格局;随着时间推移,“┣”型带状收缩结构逐渐转变为“X”型收缩结构;且东北地区点状收缩结构逐渐演变为面状收缩结构。(4)城市经济、行政地位、人口迁徙、城市产业结构、就业环境、公共建设投入、公共资源配置和城市管理服务水平等因素都是中国城市人口收缩的主要动因。
Based on the data bulletins of the fifth,sixth and seventh national censuses,the study comprehensively uses spatial analysis,regression analysis and other methods to deeply explore the spatio-temporal dynamic characteristics and causes of population shrinking in cities of and above prefecture level in China in order to provide reference for the national development policies,and for the construction of new urbanization and the balanced distribution of population in the future.The findings are as follows:1.the urban population shrinking in China is increasingly serious with the characteristics of polarization,i.e.the scope of population contraction is increasing,and the scope of population growth is shrinking;2.The population aggregation in northern and Western China is significantly weaker than that in southeastern China and the center of gravity of urban population density gradually moves from Xiaogan to the middle of Wuhan,while the center of gravity of population shrinking moves from Xiangyang in Hubei Province to Xingtai in Hebei Province forming a belt of urban population shrinking along the"Hu Huan-yong line";3.China’s urban population shrinking pattern characterized by a shrinking belt,some punctiform cities and a planar spatial structure changing from a"┣-shape"into a"X-shape",however the punctiform urban population shrinking in Northeast China gradually evolves into a planar shrinking spatial structure:4.Urban economy,administrative status,population migration,urban industrial structure,employment environment,public construction investment,public resource allocation and urban management services are the main drivers of China’s urban population shrinking.
作者
张小东
韩昊英
蒋懿康
ZHANG Xiao-dong;HAN Hao-ying;JIANG Yi-kang(College of Water Resources and Architectural Engineering,Tarim University,A-La-Er 843300;College of Civil Engineering and Architecture,Zhejiang University,Hangzhou 310012)
出处
《南方人口》
CSSCI
2023年第1期59-68,共10页
South China Population
基金
国家自然科学基金项目“城市增长边界动态调整的管控模式研究”(51778560)
浙江大学平衡建筑研究中心资助项目“韧性城市的指标体系与规划方法”(K横20203512-02B)。
关键词
人口普查数据
城市人口收缩
城市收缩
空间分布特征
Census data
Urban population shrinking
Urban shrinking
Spatial distribution characteristics
作者简介
张小东,男,塔里木大学水利与建筑工程学院讲师,硕士,学科带头人,主要研究方向为城市与区域规划;通讯作者:韩昊英,男,浙江大学建筑工程学院教授,博士,博士生导师,主要研究方向为城市与区域规划;蒋懿康,女,塔里木大学水利与建筑工程学院助理实验师,主要研究方向为城市与区域规划。
